Rafael Nadal vs. Guido Pella
|Date & Time||Thursday August 8, 2019, 6:30 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Rafael Nadal and Guido Pella meet in the third round of the 2019 tennis Rogers Cup.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Daniel Evans that took 23 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 79 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 72 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his seven break points. Nadal got 58 percent of his first serves in play and hit seven aces. It wasn’t a perfect performance from Nadal, as he was broken twice, but he avoided a marathon match and was sharp with his return when he needed to be. Nadal looks to win at least two matches for the eighth straight tournament. Nadal has won five of his last six matches on hard court.
Guido Pella is coming off a three sets win over Radu Albot that took 30 games to decide. In the victory, Pella won 72 percent of his first serve points and 50 percent of his second serve points. Pella won 65 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his 12 break points. Pella got 70 percent of his first serves in play and saved four of his seven break points. Pella has to be better with his second serve, but he’s now won eight of his last 10 matches overall and won also won six of his last nine matches that have gone the distance. Pella has four career wins over top-10 players, with one of those wins taking place this year. Pella has never beat two top-10 players in a single year. Pella has won four of his last five matches on hard court.
These two have played three times and Nadal has won all three matches in straight sets, including the most recent this year in Monte Carlo. They played once on hard court, which came in 2017 Indian Wells.
The h2h usually doesn’t lie, as Pella has had zero success against Nadal in three tries. Nadal is also one of those players who usually cleans up his mistakes from match to match, so I expect his serve to be a tad bit sharper this time around. Pella has also never beaten two top-10 players in the same year, so he has that working against him as well.
Give me Nadal in straights.