Mayer vs. Nadal
|Date & Time||Tuesday January 16, 2018, 10:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: Nadal -- Over/Under:
Rafael Nadal and Leonardo Mayer meet in the second round of the 2018 Australian Open.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Victor Estrella Burgos that took 21 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 77 percent of his first serve points and 67 percent of his second serve points. Nadal crushed in his opening round victory and showed no signs of being banged up, which was the only real concern for him entering this tournament. Nadal was only broken once in the victory and had zero match pressure on him, which is key for him if he hopes to make another deep grand slam run. Nadal hasn’t lost in the second round of a grand slam since the 2015 Wimbledon. Nadal has won seven of his last 10 matches on hard court.
Leonardo Mayer is coming off a straight sets win over Nicolas Jarry that took 30 games to decide. In the victory, Mayer won 100 percent of his first serve points and 70 percent of his second serve points. Mayer was flawless in his victory, winning all 46 of his first serve points and giving himself 16 break chances. If Mayer can come close to any of that in this match, we’ll have a good chance of seeing an upset in the second round. However, Mayer has just one career win over a top-10 player, and that victory was against David Ferrer back in 2014. Mayer hopes to make the second round of a grand slam for the second time since 2016. Mayer has split his last six matches on hard court.
These two have played four times and Nadal has won all four meetings. The most recent match was in last years US Open, a match Nadal won in four sets. Nadal has won 10 of the 11 sets played against Mayer.
If Mayer is capable of serving like he did in the first round, he has a chance. But we’ve seen nothing from him in big matches or against Nadal in the past that suggests he’s capable of duplicating such a performance. Mayer has won just one of the 11 sets played against Nadal, and he has very little grand slam success.
Give me Nadal in straight sets.