Carreno Busta vs. Nadal
|Date & Time||Tuesday June 6, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Nadal -3700 / Carreno Busta +1800 -- Over/Under:
Rafael Nadal and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the quarterfinals of the 2017 French Open.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Roberto Bautista Agut that took 23 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 69 percent of his first serve points and 73 percent of his second serve points. Nadal still has yet to drop a set this tournament and he’s lost just six games in his last two matches combined. Nadal has been broken just three times in his first four matches, is dominating his return and has had 23 or less unforced errors in every match. It’s hard to pick a weakness in Nadal’s game right now, as he's clearly on a mission to take back the French Open crown. Nadal hopes to make his second grand slam semifinal since 2015, and he’s lost in the quarters of the French Open just once in his career. Nadal has won 11 of his last 12 matches on clay court.
Pablo Carreno Busta is coming off a five set win over Milos Raonic that took 60 games to decide. In the victory, Carreno Busta won 66 percent of his first serve points and 51 percent of his second serve points. Carreno Busta has been the clear surprise of this tournament, as he's now beaten back-to-back top-15 players and just broke one of the top servers in the game seven times. Carreno Busta is able to play loose tennis given the lack of expectations, and that's allowed him to play better than expected heading into this tournament. However, after such a long match and the fact he's never been here before, you wonder how much Carreno Busta has left in the tank and if nerves will takeover at some point. Carreno Busta hopes to make the semifinals of a grand slam for the first time. Carreno Busta has won five of his last six matches on clay court.
These two have met three times before and Nadal won all three matches. The most recent was in the 2016 Rio Open, a match Nadal won in 17 games. This will be their third meeting on clay.
Carreno Busta burned me in the fourth round, as I didn’t give him much of a chance against Raonic, and you have to give it up to the 25-year-old, as he's had the most surprising run of the tournament so far. However, beating Nadal in the French is a completely different monster. Nadal hasn't come close to losing a set this tournament let alone being pushed for a match. He looks like peak Nadal, and on clay, you can count on one hand how many guys can compete with him.
Nice run for Carreno Busta, but Nadal isn’t losing here. Give me Nadal in straight sets, again.