Federer vs. Nadal
|Date & Time||Sunday April 2, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Federer -130 / Nadal +110 -- Over/Under:
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer meet Sunday in the 2017 Miami Open Final.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Fabio Fognini that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 83 percent of his first serve points and 80 percent of his second serve points. Nadal is coming off a serving clinic in which he dropped just nine service points all match. Nadal has won his last eight sets and has lost a combined 11 games in his last two matches. Nadal is playing some of the best tennis we’ve seen from him in a while, and he’s already in his third final appearance this season. Nadal hopes to win his 70th career singles title and first since the 2016 Barcelona Open. Nadal is 16-23 in final appearances on hard court. Nadal has never won a Miami Open title and is 0-4 in final appearances in this event. Nadal has won 11 of his last 13 matches on hard court.
Roger Federer is coming off a three sets win over Nick Kyrgios that took 39 games to decide. In the victory, Federer won 71 percent of his first serve points and 56 percent of his second serve points. Federer continues to grind out victories and takes advantage of every little mistake his opponent makes. Whether it's hitting a winner to save break point or pulling away in a tiebreaker, Federer comes up big when he needs to most. The 35-year-old Federer has given away very little since his semifinals run in last years Wimbledon. Federer hopes to win his 91st career singles title and third this season. Federer is 62-23 in final appearances on hard court. Federer has won two Miami Open titles, but this is first final appearance since 2006. Federer has won 11 straight matches on hard court.
These two have met 36 times in the past and Nadal has won 23 of those meetings. The most recent match was in this years Indian Wells Masters, a match Federer won in straight sets. Federer has won the last three meetings against Nadal with his last loss coming in the 2014 Australian Open. These two have both won nine matches against one another on hard court.
It always feels like a coin flip when these two meet and a case can be made for either side. Nadal has been very impressive this tournament and has had to work far less to get to this point. However, Federer has had the upperhand over Nadal twice this season and the last match wasn’t even close. In fact, Federer lost just 10 service points and won 43 percent of return points. Federer has just been rock solid the last few months and has been money in big matches.
I’m going to back Federer like I have in the previous meetings.