Berdych vs. Gasquet
|Date & Time||Monday May 7, 2018, 11:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych meet in the first round of the 2018 tennis Madrid Masters.
Richard Gasquet has turned his season around on clay court, as he’s 6-3 on this surface this year and just made the quarterfinals at the Monte Carlo Masters. Gasquet was struggling with his form before Casablanca, but now he’s moving well, winning a great deal of his return points and is serving with more confidence. Gasquet is always a grinder who finds ways to win matches, but when he’s serving well and hitting his spots, he’s more than capable of a big run on the big stage. Gasquet hasn’t lost in the first round of the Madrid Masters since 2011. Gasquet has lost in the first round of a Masters 1000 just once since 2014. Gasquet has won 11 of his last 14 matches on clay court.
Tomas Berdych has played just one clay match this season, which was a loss to Kei Nishikori in the Monte Carlo Masters. Berdych has had an up and down season so far and comes into this tournament losing four of his last six matches. Berdych is coming off a match in which he won just 49 percent of his first serve points, and that’s simply not the hard serving player we’ve known over the years. When Berdych has his serve working, he’s a handful for anybody. If Berdych can’t get free points with his serve, he’s likely going home sooner than he had hoped. Berdych hasn’t lost in the first round of the Madrid Masters since 2006. Berdych has lost in the first round of a Masters 1000 twice since 2013. Berdych has split his last eight matches on clay court.
These two have played 16 times and Berdych has won nine of those matches. The most recent meeting was in the 2017 ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament, a match Berdych won in straight sets. Berdych has won the last three meetings against Gasquet, and his last loss came in the 2015 US Open. These two have split the four meetings on clay court.
Berdych has beaten Gasquet in six of the last seven meetings and has the power that will decide this match. If Berdych is hitting his spots, there’s not much Gasquet can do. If Berdych looks how he looked against Nishikori, you have to favor the frenchmen. It’s a tough call given the form of Berdych at the moment.
Regardless, I’m siding with Berdych based on the recent history between these two players.