Roger Federer vs. Dominic Thiem
|Date & Time||Sunday March 17, 2019, 3:00 PM (EDT)|
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Indian Wells, California
The Line: Federer -337 / Thiem +282 -- Over/Under:
Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem meet in the final of the 2019 tennis Indian Wells.
Roger Federer is coming off a walkover win win over Rafael Nadal, as the Spaniard was forced to pull out due to a knee injury. Federer now has a major rest advantage considering he’s played just eight sets to get to this point and played less than an hour and a half on Friday. Federer has his entire game working at the moment and has saved 16 of his 17 break points this tournament, so while he has provided an opening to his opponents, he continues to close the deal on the biggest points of the match. Federer hopes to win his second title of the year and his 101st title of his career. Federer has won 12 of his last 16 final appearances and is 69-26 in career final appearances on hard court. Federer also looks for his sixth career Indian Wells title and is 5-3 in final appearances at this event. Federer has won 13 of his last 14 matches on outdoor hard court.
Dominic Thiem is coming off a three sets win over Milos Raonic that took 36 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 82 percent of his first serve points and 60 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 77 percent of his total service points and saved his only break point in the match. Thiem has dropped just one set this tournament and has faced one break point in his last five sets overall. Thiem has clearly found his rhythm this tournament, as he’s approaching the net with no hesitation and has been dialed in with his serve. Thiem hopes to win his first title since last years St. Petersburg Open and the 12th title of his career. Thiem has split his last 12 final appearances and is 2-1 in career final appearances on hard court. Thiem looks for his first career Masters 1000 title, as he’s 0-2 in previous finals (both matches took place in the Madrid Open). Thiem has won six of his last eight matches on outdoor hard court.
These two have split the previous four matches, with Federer winning the most recent match in London a few months ago. Three of the four matches have been decided in straight sets and Federer is 2-0 against Thiem on hard court. Thiem’s two wins over Federer came in Rome and Stuttgart, both meetings coming in 2016.
Thiem has turned his sluggish season around on this slow hard court surface and is attacking the ball with confidence, something we haven’t seen in a few months. You could make a case for Thiem to win the biggest title of his career. With that said, Federer has had no problem beating Thiem in the two meetings on hard court and is as fresh as a player can be entering the final. Thiem has a quick turnaround after playing a physical, two and a half hour match. Federer should also have success against Thiem’s serve, something previous opponents have had issues with.
I like Federer to win Indian Wells for the sixth time.