Gilles Simon vs. Roger Federer
|Date & Time||Friday October 26, 2018, 1:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Roger Federer and Gilles Simon meet in the quarterfinals of the 2018 tennis Swiss Indoors.
Roger Federer is coming off a straight sets win over Jan-Lennard Struff that took 21 games to decide. In the victory, Federer won 79 percent of his first serve points and 63 percent of his second serve points. Federer won 72 percent of his total service points and converted on all three of his break points. Federer played a lot better in his second match than he did his opener, and there’s still room for improvement, particularly when you look at getting his first serve in play. Regardless, Federer has won this tournament eight times and has made the final 11 of the last 12 years, so he’s somebody you probably shouldn’t be betting against regardless of how he’s playing heading into the quarters. Federer has won 14 straight matches on indoor hard court.
Gilles Simon is coming off a straight sets win over Ernests Gulbis that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Simon won 82 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Simon won 71 percent of his total service points and produced one break on 13 break points. Simon has won all four sets this tournament and has been broken just once on five break points. With wins in nine of his last 12 matches, Simon is playing some of his most consistent tennis as of late and gives himself a shot here if he continues to hold serve with ease. Simon has 32 career wins over top-10 players, but only three of those victories have come since 2016. Simon has won four of his last five matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played eight times and Federer has won six of those matches, although one was a walkover. The most recent meeting was in the 2015 Wimbledon, a match Federer won in straight sets. Simon hasn’t beaten Federer since London of 2008, the second ever meeting between these players. Four of the seven played matches have resulted in the loser winning at least one set.
Simon has been competitive against Federer in the past and has a shot to make this no different with the way he’s serving. However, picking against Federer in his home tournament where he’s dominated over the last decade isn’t a wise betting decision. Not to mention Simon hasn’t had a ton of success against top-10 players over the last three years.
Federer has to be the pick here, likely in straight sets.