Roger Federer vs. Richard Gasquet 5/7/19 Madrid Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Roger Federer vs. Richard Gasquet
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 1:00 PM (Park Manzanares)
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet meet in the second round of the 2019 tennis Monte Carlo.
Roger Federer hasn’t played a match since winning the Miami Open, so he’s got a ton of rest under his belt to play his first clay tournament in years. Federer has won 16 of his last 17 matches overall and has been very sharp with his serve for the most part, despite struggling at times getting his first serve in play. Federer has had some matches here and there where he wasn’t hitting his spots the way we’re used to seeing, but that’s a bit of nitpicking when you consider the results. With just two losses since the Hopman Cup, Federer is playing about as well as anybody could have asked for at this point in the season. Federer hasn’t played a match on clay since Rome of 2016.
Richard Gasquet is coming off a straight sets win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Gasquet won 69 percent of his first serve points and 57 percent of his second serve points. Gasquet won 65 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his nine break points. Gasquet got 70 percent of his first serves in play and was aggressive with his return, two things that give him a fighting chance in this contest. When he’s moving well, Gasquet has shown flashes of being the player he once was and isn’t exactly a pushover, despite the lack of consistent success lately. Gasquet hopes to win two matches in a tournament for the third time in his last five tries. Gasquet has 32 career wins over top-10 players, with two of those wins coming in the last two years. Gasquet has won five of his last seven matches on clay court.
These two have played 20 times and Federer has won 18 of those matches, including the most recent match in last years Australian Open. Federer has won the last 10 meetings against Gasquet and his last loss came in Rome in 2011. 16 of the last 19 meetings have been decided in straight sets.
Gasquet isn’t the player he once was, and even back then he wasn’t able to even compete with Federer. A rested Federer makes things even worse here. I’m not sure how one can make a case for Gasquet given the ridiculously lopsided history. Yes, Federer hasn’t played on clay in forever, but the history suggests one outcome if this match was played on clay, hard court or under the sea.
Federer in straight sets.