Roger Federer vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
|Date & Time||Friday May 17, 2019, 10:00 AM (EDT)|
The Line: Tsitsipas -122 / Federer +108 -- Over/Under:
Roger Federer and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the quarterfinal of the 2019 tennis Italian Open.
Roger Federer is coming off a three sets win over Borna Coric that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Federer won 63 percent of his first serve points and 60 percent of his second serve points. Federer won 61 percent of his total service points and converted on two of his five break points. Federer worked hard to advance, as he rebounded after dropping the first set and survived a third set tiebreak, winning the match that took a little over two and a half hours. Federer has to get better than 57 percent of his first serves in play if he’s going to make a run at the title here, but the crafty veteran continues to play his best the bigger the points, so he’s never quite out of it. Federer hopes to win three straight matches for the sixth time in his last seven tournaments. Federer has won four of his last five matches on clay court.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is coming off a straight sets win over Fabio Fognini that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Tsitsipas won 81 percent of his first serve points and 42 percent of his second serve points. Tsitsipas won 67 percent of his total service points and converted on four of his seven break points. Tsitsipas got 63 percent of his first serves in play and saved one of his three break points. Tsitsipas has now won 14 of his last 18 sets and is quietly becoming one of the more consistent and dangerous players on the men’s side. As long as Tsitsipas’ serve continues to hold up, he’s capable of producing these deep runs, as the rest of his game seems to fall into place when his serve is dialed in. Tsitsipas looks to win at least three matches for the third straight tournament. Tsitsipas has won 10 of his last 11 matches on clay court.
These two have played three times and Federer has won two of those matches, including the most recent meeting this year in Dubai. Tsitsipas won the 2019 Australian Open, while Federer won this years Hopman Cup. Both of Federer’s wins were in straight sets. This will be the first meeting on clay.
Tsitsipas is playing the better and more consistent tennis overall, but this is also a quick turnaround for somebody who has played a ton of tennis and just played two matches yesterday. Federer is the fresher player at this stage and has the crowd behind him to give him that extra boost of energy. Federer also had his way with Tsitsipas twice this year, and while those matches were on hard court, it still counts for something.
This will be the best match of the quarterfinals, and I give Federer the edge to prevail.