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Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych 2018 Australian Open Pick, Odds, Prediction

Game
Berdych vs. Federer
Date & Time Tuesday January 23, 2018, 10:00 PM (EST)
Location
The Line
The Line: -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN
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Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych meet in the quarterfinals of the 2018 Australian Open.

Roger Federer is coming off a straight sets win over Marton Fucsovics that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Federer won 62 percent of his first serve points and 88 percent of his second serve points. Federer has yet to really sweat a game in quite some time and is fresh off a match in which he dropped just one second serve point. Federer still hasn’t dropped a set this tournament and has won 17 of his last 18 matches overall. I’ve said it before, but Federer has to be the favorite to win this tournament in his current form. Federer hopes to make his seventh grand slam semifinal appearance since 2015. Federer has won 10 of his last 13 grand slam quarterfinal matches. Federer is 13-0 in his career in Australian Open quarterfinal matches. Federer has won 12 of his last 13 matches on hard court.

Tomas Berdych is coming off a straight sets win over Fabio Fognini that took 27 games to decide. In the victory, Berdych won 76 percent of his first serve points and 57 percent of his second serve points. Berdych was consistent with his serve like he usually is, but he gave himself 11 break chances against a respectable player, which makes him most dangerous. When Berdych has both his return and serve working, he’s one of the more underrated players on tour. Berdych won 43 percent of his return points in his last match and hit 37 winners. Berdych hopes to reach his fourth grand slam semifinal appearance since 2015. Berdych has split his last eight grand slam quarterfinal appearances. Berdych has made the semifinals of the Australian Open twice in his career. Berdych has won six of his last nine matches on hard court.

These two have played 25 times and Federer has won 19 of those meetings. The most recent match was in the 2017 Wimbledon, a match Federer won in straight sets. Federer has won the last eight meetings against Berdych, with his last loss coming in the 2013 Dubai Tennis Championships. 

Berdych is always worth a look when you’re getting him at a cheap price or with plus money, as he’s consistent and has a really good serve that’s going to give him a punchers chance. But are you really going to bet against Federer? The guy has won 35 of his last 38 matches on hard court and most of those matches were decided in straight sets. There’s also the glaring head to head numbers fading Federer, and he’s 13-0 in quarterfinal matches at the Australian Open.

Federer reaches the semifinals.

Pick:
Roger Federer

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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