Fognini vs. Wawrinka
|Date & Time||Saturday June 3, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: Fognini +300 / Wawrinka -400 -- Over/Under:
Stan Wawrinka and Fabio Fognini meet in the third round of the 2017 French Open.
Stan Wawrinka is coming off a straight sets win over Alexandr Dolgopolov that took 35 games to decide. In the victory, Wawrinka won 74 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Wawrinka was even better in the second round than the first, as he hit 16 aces, had 41 inners overall and just 28 unforced errors. Of course, Wawrinka is known for slow starts in tournaments, but he's clearly playing well and probably using that momentum from the Geneva Open title to his advantage. Wawrinka hopes to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the 11th time in 12 tries. Wawrinka has won six straight matches on clay court.
Fabio Fognini is coming off a straight sets win over Andreas Seppi that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Fognini won 70 percent of his first serve points and 49 percent of his second serve points. Fognini has managed to win both matches despite having more unforced errors than winners, and it has a lot to do with his return being so effective. Fognini is fresh off a match in which he won 47 percent of his return points, and he's given himself an unreal 30 break chances in the first two matches. Fognini hopes to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the second time since 2015. Fognini hasn't made the fourth round of the French Open since 2011. Fognini has won five of his last seven matches on clay court.
These two have played six times in the past and Wawrinka has won five of those meetings. The most recent match was in the 2014 Davis Cup, a match Wawrinka won in three sets. Fognini’s only win over Wawrinka came in the 2013 Mexican Open. This will be their sixth meeting on clay.
When Fognini is playing well, he has a chance to beat anybody on any given day due to his shotmaking. He also already has three wins over top-10 players this season. However, if Fognini wasn't able to beat Wawrinka before Wawrinka became Wawrinka, I have a hard time thinking he can beat this version of him. Also, Fognini is so up and down in his play and mental game, which explains the lack of big grand slam success despite his talent.
I’ll take Wawrinka to win this match in four sets.