Carreno Busta vs. Wawrinka
|Date & Time||Saturday March 18, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
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Stan Wawrinka and Pablo Carreno Busta meet Saturday in the semifinals of the 2017 Indian Wells Masters.
Stan Wawrinka is coming off a three set win over Dominic Thiem that took 33 games to decide. In the victory, Wawrinka won 67 percent of his first serve points and 54 percent of his second serve points. Wawrinka hasn’t been his best in this tournament, which is why he’s played six sets and two tiebreaks in his last two matches. However, Wawrinka has done a fine job of grinding out the victory and coming up big when he needs to most. There’s been times in the past where frustration gets the best of Wawrinka and he throws matches away, but that hasn’t the case in this tournament. Wawrinka has a chance to make his first ever Indian Wells Masters final and his first singles final since the 2016 St. Petersburg Open. Wawrinka has won 11 of his last 14 matches on hard court.
Pablo Carreno Busta is coming off a three set win over Pablo Cuevas that took 29 games to decide. In the victory, Carreno Busta won 65 percent of his first serve points and 58 percent of his second serve points. Carreno Busta has been the surprise of the tournament and has played just seven sets thanks to a withdraw in the second round. Carreno Busta has been very successful on his returns and has produced a combined 15 aces in his last two matches. Carreno Busta is gaining some serious confidence given the way this season has played out so far, and he’d love nothing more than a shot at his first big singles crown. Carreno Busta hopes to make his sixth career finals appearance and second this season. Carreno Busta has won seven of his last nine matches on hard court.
These two have played twice in the past with Wawrinka winning both meetings. The most recent match was in the 2016 Geneva Open, a match that was decided in 16 games. This will be their first meeting on hard court.
Even though Wawrinka hasn’t played his best tennis this tournament and is beatable on his off days, he should be a big time favorite over the young Carreno Busta who hasn’t been in a spot like this before and has honestly had an easy draw up to this point. Give credit to Carreno Busta, as he’s a top-30 player now and has a shot to play in his second final this season, but you have to prove yourself in this sport against the big boys before you can be backed in spots like this.
I like Wawrinka to reach the Indian Wells Masters Final.