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Stan Wawrinka vs. Rafael Nadal 2015 ATP World Tour Finals Pick, Odds, Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs. Stan Wawrinka
Date & Time Monday November 16, 2015, 11:05 AM (EST)
The Line
The Line: Stan Wawrinka +140 / Rafael Nadal -160 -- Over/Under: 22.5
TV Channel
ESPN3, Tennis
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Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal meet Monday morning in the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals.

Stan Wawrinka has been up-and-down as of late, splitting his last six matches, but he is coming off a semifinals appearance at the Paris Masters. There’s times when Wawrinka is hitting his winners and looking unbeatable, and then there’s the times when the unforced errors pile up and he’s playing in a three hour match. Overall, however, Wawrinka has only really lost three matches since the US Open, and one of those losses came against Novak Djokovic, a guy who is beating everybody right now. Wawrinka is winning 86 percent of his service games on hard court this year and converting on 40 percent of his break chances. This is Wawrinka’s third time in the ATP World Tour Finals, and he’s reached the semifinals each year.  

Rafael Nadal has won six of his last nine singles matches and is still trying to find his groove after a subpar year. Nadal has three singles titles and wins over four top-10 players this season, but he has struggled a lot which is why he has 19 losses. The biggest issue with Nadal are the slow starts, as he’s dropping the first set a lot and six of his last eight matches have resulted in losses or three set marathons. Still, Nadal is winning 84 percent of his service games this year on hard court and is converting 41 percent of his break points. Nadal just needs to relax and find that rhythm that’s made him one of the best to ever play this sport. Nadal has failed to make it out of the round robin stages of the World Tour Finals just twice in his career.  

These two have played 16 times, and Nadal has won 13 overall but has lost three of the last four against Wawrinka. The most recent match between these two was in this year’s Paris Masters, a match Wawrinka won in straight sets. Five of the last six matches have been decided in straight sets. This will be the 11th time Wawrinka and Nadal meet on hard court, the surface in which two of Stan’s three wins have come.

This is going to be an interesting match as both have the ability to play unbeatable tennis, but they’ve both been too inconsistent for my taste. Which guy is going to show up?

While Wawrinka and the plus money is intriguing, Nadal has to be bitter with the way things ended in Paris. Nadal is also super competitive and would love to start this tournament on the right foot. I’m siding with Nadal.

Rafael Nadal -2

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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