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Stan Wawrinka vs. Rafael Nadal 2017 French Open Final Pick, Odds, Prediction

Game
Nadal vs. Wawrinka
Date & Time Sunday June 11, 2017, 9:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Wawrinka +400 / Nadal -500 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
Tennis, NBC
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USA TODAY Sports

Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal meet Sunday in the 2017 French Open Final.

Stan Wawrinka is coming off a five set win over Andy Murray that took 54 games to decide. In the victory, Wawrinka won 66 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Wawrinka is coming off a match in which he hit 87 winners and simply blasted the top ranked player in the world in the final set. It was a classic up-and-down Wawrinka performance where he went for broke over and over and eventually became too much when he was hitting his spots with consistency. When Wawrinka finds his rhythm and is spraying winners left and right, he's proven to be one of the tougher players on tour to beat. It will be interesting to see if Wawrinka can repeat that performance after such a draining five set match. Wawrinka is 3-0 in grand slam finals overall and hopes to win his second career French Open title. Wawrinka is 7-5 in final appearances on clay court. Wawrinka Wawrinka has won 10 straight matches on clay court.

Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Dominic Thiem that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 71 percent of his first serve points and 76 percent of his second serve points. Nadal continues to play perfect tennis, as his serve, return and shotmaking has all been working for him at an elite level. Nadal still has yet to lose a set this tournament and has dropped just 29 combined games all tournament long, which is simply unreal. Nadal is simply playing some of the best tennis we’ve seen from him in years, and it’s been a joy to see. Nadal hopes to win his 15th grand slam title and is 9-0 in French Open finals. Nadal is 52-8 in his career in final appearances on clay court. Nadal has has won 16 of his last 17 matches on clay court.

These two have played 18 times in the past and Nadal has won 15 of those meetings. The most recent match was in the 2016 Monte Carlo Masters, a match Nadal won in 17 games. Wawrinka’s last win over Nadal came in the 2015 Paris Masters. The last five matches between these two were decided in straight sets. Nadal is 6-1 against Wawrinka on clay court.

Wawrinka has proven time and time again he’s going to show up in the big matches, and he’s 3-0 in grand slam finals, so he's certainly worth a look here and has a puncher's chance. However, Nadal is the King of Clay for a reason, and he's done everything in this tournament to keep that title. Nadal has been damn near flawless throughout this tournament and has had far less wear and tear to get to this point. There's also the glaring head to head numbers between these two players that includes a 6-1 edge for Nadal on clay. And Nadal is 9-0 in French Open final appearances. Wawrinka is certainly capable of putting together a brilliant performance to slay the dragon, but I’m not betting against Nadal in this tournament in his current form. You don't bet against Michael Jordan in the NBA Finals, and you don't bet against Nadal in the French.

Nadal wins his first grand slam title in three years.

Pick:
Rafael Nadal

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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