Muguruza vs. Venus
|Date & Time||Thursday October 26, 2017, 8:00 AM (EDT)|
The Line: -- Over/Under:
Venus Williams and Garbine Muguruza meet in the 2017 WTA Finals.
Venus Williams is coming off a three sets win over Jelena Ostapenko that took 37 games to decide. In the victory, Venus won 61 percent of her first serve points and 33 percent of her second serve points. Venus has struggled mightily with her second serve in this tournament, and it prevented her from winning much earlier despite winning 55 percent of her return points and providing many breaks. The good news is that Venus showed she can still be effective in a three hour match and her return is good enough to get her out of trouble. However, if Venus is going to be a serious threat to win this event, her serve must be more consistent, as it nearly cost her going down 0-2 and an early exit. Venus has won seven of her last 10 matches on hard court.
Garbine Muguruza is coming off a straight sets loss to Karolina Pliskova that took 16 games to decide. In the loss, Muguruza won 59 percent of her first serve points and 18 percent of her second serve points. Muguruza just couldn’t get much going in her second match, as she won just 45 percent of her service points and 28 percent of her return points. Muguruza has struggled with her service game overall recently and needs to find her form quickly if she’s going to make it out of the round robin stages. Muguruza has to return to being that feisty player who puts pressure on her opponent by spraying power shots across the court. Muguruza has split her last six matches on hard court.
These two have played five times and Venus has won three of those meetings. The most recent match was in this years Wimbledon, a match Muguruza won in straight sets. Muguruza has won the last two meetings against Venus, with her last loss coming in the 2015 Wuhan Open. However, Venus is 3-0 against Muguruza on hard court.
This is as close to a toss-up as I can find, as Muguruza is probably the better overall player, but her performance in her last match doesn’t provide confidence. Venus has beaten Muguruza in all three matches on hard court, but how much does a 37-year-old have left in the tank after a three hour match? I wouldn’t be shocked either way. But if forced to pick, I’m siding with Venus. I think she wants this tournament a little bit more and I have more trust in her coming away with the big points than I do Muguruza.
I’ll side with Venus in this spot.