Borussia Dortmund vs. FSV Mainz 05 6/17/20 Bundesliga Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Borussia Dortmund 20-6-5, FSV Mainz 9-4-18
6/17/20 2:30 pm
Over 2.5 (-275), Under 2.5 (+220)
Borussia Dortmund is welcoming FSV Mainz 05 to Signal Iduna Park in round 32 of German Bundesliga.
Borussia is playing well, and they have lost only 1 of their last 6 games, but unfortunately for Borussia, that loss has cost them the title in Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund is now in second place with 66 points, 7 points less than Bayern, and with only three games left in Bundesliga, chances of Borussia caching up to Bayern are slim to none. Borussia is having a solid offensive season with 82 scored goals, but if only their defense has been a bit more consistent, we would have been looking at Borussia in the first place now. Borussia has conceded 35 goals in 31 games this season. In their last match in Bundesliga against Fortuna on the road, I was expecting a lot more from Borussia, to be honest. Borussia Dortmund has had 63% of ball possession, 3 shots on goal, 1 corner kick, and 89% of the correct passes. Borussia has won this match 0-1 with a goal from Haaland in the 95th minute of the match. For the last couple of games, Borussia’s game was incredibly slow, but I guess that is what you get when Can and Witsel are two of your defensive midfielders, those two are not capable of making a fast, forwards pass. Sancho is still Borussia’s best player with 17 goals and 16 assists, while Haaland and Reus each have 11 goals. Reus, Zagadou, Dahoud, and Delaney are all still injured. Borussia will end the season close to the top, the question is whether it’s going to be the second or third place because Leipzig is just 4 points away from Borussia Dortmund.
Mainz is outside the relegation zone, in 15th place with 31 points, but unless they win some points in their last three games, Mainz will find themselves in trouble because Fortuna and Werder are just 3 points away. With massive 63 conceded goals, Mainz is one of the worst defensive teams in Bundesliga, but their offense has had some good moments this season and they scored 39 goals. In their last 6 games since the season was restarted, Mainz has won only 1 game, while they lost 3, and 2 games ended in a draw. Quaison is still the leading goal scorer for Mainz with 12 goals, while the next best goal scorers are Oztunali, Kunde, and Onisiwo with 4 goals each. Zentner and Awoniyi are both still injured and will skip this game. The last three games will be extremely tough for Mainz as they are playing against Borussia, Werder who are their direct competitors to stay in Bundesliga, and Leverkusen who are fighting for the Champions League. I don’t think Mainz can get enough points to stay outside the relegation zone, especially if they lose against Borussia Dortmund in this match.
The trends are heavily on Borussia’s side in this matchup, but Mainz has won 2 of their last three away games against Borussia Dortmund. Borussia’s home record this season is 11-3-1 and they are on a 3-game winning streak. The price on Borussia is not great, but Borussia has scored only 2 goals in their two games. I think it’s time to break that streak and to score more goals.