Spal vs. Cagliari 6/23/20 Serie A Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Spal 5-3-18, Cagliari 8-8-10
6/23/20 1:30 pm
Over 2.5 (+100), Under 2.5 (-125)
Spal is hosting Cagliari to Stadio Paolo Mazza in part of round 27 in the Italian Serie A.
Spal is one of the weakest teams in Serie A and they are struggling on both ends. Spal has scored only 20 goals this season, the least in Serie A, while conceding 44 goals in 26 games. Spal has won only 2 of their last 7 games while losing the other 5, but a piece of good news is that Spal scored at least 1 goal in all those 7 games. In their first game back against Parma on the road, Spal has had 47% of ball possession, 3 shots on goal, 5 corner kicks, and 79% of the correct passes. Spal has won this game 0-1 by a goal from a penalty kick in 71st minute. Spal is in 19th place in the standings with only 18 points, 7 points away from the safe zone, but I’m just not sure if Spal has what it takes to get out of the relegation zone, and since the relegation playoffs are gone this season, I’m afraid spall will go back to Serie B. Petagna has scored 11 goals for Spal this season and is their leading goal scorer. There are no injuries or suspensions in Spal. Spal has never won 2 games in a row this season, and I don’t think they will simply because they don’t have the quality to compete with the other teams in Serie A.
Cagliari is in a terrible, terrible form and they won the last game back in December of last year, a long, long time ago. It’s a miracle that Cagliari is outside the relegation zone, in 11th place with 32 points, 42 scored goals, and 42 conceded goals. In their last 7 games in Serie A, Cagliari has conceded a goal in every single one, 13 in total, while scoring 9 goals in 5 of those 7 games. Joao Pedro has scored 16 goals for Cagliari this season, while Simeone added 7 goals. Pellegrini and Nainggolan each have 5 assists. Pavoletti, Farago, Nainggolan, Oliva, and Ragatzu are all injured and none of them will be in the lineup for this game. In their last game back against Verona on the road, Cagliari was solid with 53% of ball possession, 3 shots on goal, 7 corner kicks, and 84% of the correct passes. Cagliari has lost this game 2-1. Cagliari is a good team with good players that had an excellent start of the season, but they have been struggling as of late, mostly because of all the injuries they have. They looked good against Verona, and Cagliari would have been much closer to the Europa League if their defense was just a tad better.
Spal has never beaten Cagliari in the past, the closest they got to beating them was a 2-2 draw back in 2018. Cagliari is the better team here, and if not for all the injuries, this would be a no brainer for me. I’m going side with Cagliari anyways because they are due for a win.