Venezuela vs. Peru
June 27, 2021 5:00 pm EDT
The Line: Over 2.5 +150, Under 2.5 -188
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Venezuela and Peru are playing at Estadio Nacional Mane Garrincha in round 5 of Group B in the Copa America 2021. Venezuela is still winless in this tournament, but they are also undefeated in their last 2 games. Peru has done well in this tournament so far, and they have 1 loss, 1 win, and 1 draw in their three games.
Venezuela has scored only 2 goals so far in this tournament, and they are in the last place of their group with only 2 points, which probably won’t be enough to advance to the next stage. Defensively, Venezuela has had a couple of good games, but they have still conceded 5 goals in 3 games. In their last game against Ecuador, Venezuela has had only 31% of ball possession, 3 shots on goal, 5 corner kicks, 2 big chances created, and only 64% of the correct passes. After losing at halftime, Venezuela tied the score in the 51st minute, but Ecuador scored another goal in the 71st minute. In the final minutes of this game, Venezuela was able to tie the score once again, and this match has ended in a 2-2 draw. Hernandez and Castillo have each scored 1 goal for Venezuela so far. This is the last game of the group stage for Venezuela, and the only way they can go through is with a win, and luckily for them, they are facing the team in their quality rank.
Peru is now in 3rd place in this group with 4 points, 4 scored goals, and 7 conceded goals, and I gotta admit, I didn’t expect this from them. Peru is also undefeated in their last 2 games. Carillo, Pena, and Lapadula have each scored 1 goal for Peru so far in this tournament. Peru was playing against Ecuador in their last game, and they were decent with 42% of ball possession, 4 shots on goal, 0 corner kicks, 3 big chances created, and 76% of the correct passes. Peru was under a lot of pressure in this game, and they were losing 2-0 at halftime, but in the second half, Peru has awakened, and the score was tied by the 54th minute. The final result of this match was 2-2. Peru can still lose their spot in the next stage if they lose this game, and if Ecuador wins their game, but the chances of that happening are not great. It seems Peru is slowly finding their way back, but I’m still not convinced they can keep it up.
The trends are pretty even here, but the problem for Venezuela is that Peru is in much better form, and they are scoring more goals. These are the team of similar quality, but Venezuela must attack and go for the win if they want to advance to the next stage. I don’t think Peru will allow themselves to complicate this group, and for that reason, I will side with the draw here.