Marin Cilic vs. Roger Federer 2014 US Open Pick, Odds, Prediction
2014 US Open: Saturday, September 6, 2014 (New York)
The Line: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN, CBS, Tennis
Marin Cilic and Roger Federer will clash in the semifinal of the 2014 US Open.
Marin Cilic beat his third ranked opponent in a row to get to this point in the tournament, after shocking Tomas Berdych in straight sets that weren’t even competitive. In the victory, Cilic was serving out of his mind, producing 19 aces, winning 84 percent of his first serve points and averaging a first serve speed of 119 mph. The victory was easily Marin Cilic’s best serving performance of his career and gives him a fighting chance against anybody if he can play at that level again. Cilic has hit double-digit aces in his last four matches and has 116 aces in his last two matches. This is only Cilic’s second career grand slam semifinal appearance, as he appeared in the 2010 Australian Open.
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No surprise Roger Federer is where he’s at, but he was pushed to the limit by Gael Monfils, who won the first two sets and forced Fed to make an incredible comeback. In the victory, Federer won 76 percent of his first serve points, 72 percent of his net points and had 48 winners. Federer proved why he’s one of the more decorated players in the history of tennis, as he could have easily lost the match multiple times. Other than that match, Roger Federer has cruised through the tournament and looks to be in great shape as far as conditioning and fatigue are concerned. Federer is still moving better than he has in years and has won 76 percent or better of his first serves in four of his five matches. Unfortunately, Federer has lost in the semifinal of a grand slam six times since the 2011 season.
These two have played five times and Roger Federer has won all five meetings. Their latest match was in the 2014 Canadian Masters, a match Federer won in three sets. Before that, these two haven’t played since 2012. These two did however play in the 2011 US Open, and Marin Cilic was able to push that match to four sets.
I’m assuming Roger Federer is going to be a massive favorite given his history against Cilic and the fact he has a ton more experience in these type of matches. However, for the sake of value, I’d sprinkle a little something on Cilic to pull off the big upset. If Cilic can serve the way he did in his last match, he has a punchers chance to win this match. Of course, that’s a big if, but the value with Cilic certainly beats what you’d have to pay to back Fed.