Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem 2016 ATP World Tour Finals Pick, Odds, Prediction
Thiem vs. Djokovic
November 13, 2016
The Line: Djokovic -800 / Thiem +550 --- Over/Under See the Latest Odds
Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem meet in the first match of the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals.
Novak Djokovic is coming off a quarterfinals appearance in the Paris Masters and has been trying to find his form since falling short in the US Open. Djokovic has played just seven matches since his loss in New York and appears far more beatable than he has in the past. However, before we jump the gun, it’s important to note that Djokovic has won the last four ATP Finals and still has 18 victories over top-10 players this season. Djokovic is also rested for this tournament and always seems to show up when the competition increases. Djokovic is still the second favorite to win this tournament, but you must watch his first match to see if there’s lingering effects of subpar play. Djokovic has won four of his last five matches on indoor hard court.
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Dominic Thiem is coming into this tournament with losses in four of his last five matches and five victories overall since the US Open. However, regardless of the outcome, this is Thiem’s first appearance in the ATP Finals, so the experience is big for the 23-year-old. Thiem is still trying to find himself as a player, and he can certainly improve his return given that he’s won just 30 of 113 return points in his last two matches. Thiem has four of his five victories over top-10 players this season and has become more of a consistent player overall. Thiem still drops stinkers every now and then, but he’s starting to really tap into that potential and tournaments like this will only help his growth. Thiem has lost three of his last four matches on indoor hard court.
These two have played three times in the past and Djokovic has won all three meetings. The most recent match was in this years French Open, a match Djokovic won in straight sets. Thiem has never won a set against Djokovic in seven sets played.
The history between these two doesn’t tell much given Thiem’s improvement and the fact three matches is a small sample size. I’m not sure how healthy Djokovic is after some nagging injuries and subpar play recently. However, Djokovic loves the big stage and will be motivated to defend his crown at the ATP Finals. Thiem has also never been in this position and the bright lights may get to him.
I like Djokovic in this match.