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Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov 2017 US Open Pick, Odds, Prediction

Dolgopolov vs. Nadal

September 2017

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

Rafael Nadal and Alexandr Dolgopolov meet in the fourth round of the 2017 US Open.

Rafael Nadal is coming off a four sets win over Leonardo Mayer that took 39 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 73 percent of his first serve points and 69 percent of his second serve points. Nadal hasn’t had the easiest time so far this tournament, as he’s played 11 sets in his first three matches and has had 26 or more unforced errors in each contest. Remember, Nadal had a knee issue before the tournament started, so this wear and tear can’t be good for him as we get deeper and the competition improves. Still, Nadal continues to show great fight and is finding ways to win regardless of the extra work. Nadal hopes to make his fifth grand slam quarterfinal since 2015. Nadal also looks for his first US Open quarterfinal since 2013. Nadal has won five of his last six matches on hard court.

Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov 2017 US Open Pick, Odds, Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

Alexandr Dolgopolov is coming off a straight sets win over Viktor Troicki that took 23 games to decide. In the victory, Dolgopolov won 81 percent of his first serve points and 55 percent of his second serve points. Dolgopolov is coming off a match in which he lost just five games and won 55 percent of his return points. It’s easily some of the best tennis we’ve seen from Dolgopolov  in quite some time, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can build on that success as he enters his second ever fourth round appearance in the US Open. Dolgopolov gives himself a shot if he continues to have success on the return like he has in his first few matches. Dolgopolov hopes to make his second career grand slam quarterfinal and first since the 2011 Australian Open. Dolgopolov has won six of his last eight matches on hard court.

These two have played eight times and Nadal has won six of those meetings. The most recent match was in this years Brisbane International, a match Nadal won in straight sets. Nadal is 4-1 against Dolgopolov on hard court. 

While Nadal keeps digging deep and finding ways to win, there has to be concern with all these miles he’s logging in his first few matches. Is there enough gas in the tank to keep coming from behind and winning these emotional matches? Dolgopolov should be fresh and has been really successful on the return, giving himself a shot. However, he’s had little success against Nadal in past meetings, and the Spaniard usually finds ways to will himself to victory against lesser players.

I like Nadal in this match.

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