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Kaia Kanepi vs. Madison Keys 2017 US Open Quarterfinal Pick, Odds, Prediction

Kanepi vs. Keys

September 2017

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

Kaia Kanepi and Madison Keys meet in the quarterfinals of the 2017 US Open.

Kaia Kanepi is coming off a straight sets win over Daria Kasatkina that took 20 games to decide. In the victory, Kanepi won 60 percent of her first serve points and 35 percent of her second serve points. Kanepi is now the Cinderella of the tournament, as this is her first grand slam appearance since the 2015 US Open, and she’s had to win seven matches to get to this point. Still, Kanepi is coming off a match in which she won 56 percent of her return points, and she’s combined for 81 winners in her last three matches. Kanepi is playing with house money at this point, which makes her a dangerous opponent along with her clean play the last couple of weeks. Kanepi hopes to make her first ever grand slam semifinal, and this is her first quarterfinal trip since the 2013 Wimbledon. Kanepi is 0-5 in her career in rand slam quarterfinal matches. Kanepi has won seven straight matches on hard court.

Kaia Kanepi vs. Madison Keys 2017 US Open Quarterfinal Pick, Odds, Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

Madison Keys is coming off a three sets win over Elina Svitolina that took 29 games to decide. In the victory, Keys won 65 percent of her first serve points and 45 percent of her second serve points. Keys has made to incredible comebacks in back-to-back matches and while she shows signs of fatigue now and then, she’s able to muscle through and find a way with help from the American crowd. With Keys it’s always about her unforced errors, as she has the shotmaking and the pure power to blow anybody off the court, but when she can’t control her power and forces her shots, matches can get away quickly. Manage that power, and Keys can win her first grand slam at 22 years old. Keys hopes to make her second career grand slam semifinal and first since the 2015 Australian Open. Keys is 1-1 in career grand slam quarterfinal matches. Keys has won 10 of her last 11 matches on hard court. 

These two have played once, which was in the 2015 Madrid Masters, a match Kanepi won in straight sets. The match took 19 games to decide.  

This is a match Keys should have little trouble winning, as Kanepi won’t be able to handle the pace Keys brings on hard court. Keys is also a much better player than when they met in 2015 and far more mature. Not to mention the crowd does help, as Keys would have lost both of her last two matches if it wasn’t for the loud New Yorkers getting behind her when she needed it most, providing that spark of energy. 

Keys makes her second career grand slam semifinal.

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