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Sloane Stephens vs. Madison Keys 2017 US Open Final Pick, Odds, Prediction

Keys vs. Stephens

September 2017

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys meet in the final of the 2017 US Open.  

Sloane Stephens is coming off a three sets win over Venus Williams that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Stephens won 56 percent of her first serve points and 55 percent of her second serve points. Stephens found a way to win despite losing the second set 0-6, having 10 more unforced errors than winners and not exactly serving well. However, Stephens did win 48 percent of her return points and gave herself 12 break chances to pull away. Stephens has now won four matches this tournament in three sets, all of which dropping the second set in each match. It hasn’t always been pretty with Stephens this tournament, but she’s willed her way to victory each time. Stephens is in her first grand slam final appearance and is 4-0 in final appearances overall for her career. Stephens has won 10 of her last 11 matches on hard court.

Sloane Stephens vs. Madison Keys 2017 US Open Final Pick, Odds, Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

Madison Keys is coming off a straight sets win over Coco Vandeweghe that took 15 games to decide. In the victory, Keys won 73 percent of her first serve points and 76 percent of her second serve points. Keys has dropped a combined nine games in her last two matches and is coming off a contest in which she had just nine unforced errors. Keys is simply playing out of her mind at the moment, as she’s controlling the pace nearly every point, serving extremely well and has far less unforced errors than in the past. Keys has been lights out on hard court all season long and is currently playing the best and most consistent tennis we’ve seen from her. Keys is in her first grand slam final appearance and is 3-3 in final appearances overall for her career. Keys is 1-1 in final appearances on hard court. Keys has won 12 of her last 13 matches on hard court.

These two have played once, which was in the 2015 Miami Masters, a match Stephens won in straight sets. The match took 18 games to decide. 

Stephens has burned me in her last two matches, so maybe I should trust her and finally back her to win. However, this simply seems to be Keys’ tournament, as all of her tools are working and the confidence is building with each point. I don’t see Keys losing this match at all, especially if Stephens has a similar performance as she did in the semifinals. 

Keys wins her first grand slam title.

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