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Dominic Thiem vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 French Open Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Nadal vs. Thiem

June 2018

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: Tennis, NBC

Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal meet in the final of the 2018 tennis French Open.

Dominic Thiem is coming off a straight sets win over Marco Cecchinato that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 83 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 76 percent of his total service points and saved five of his six break points. Thiem has been in complete control of every match this tournament and is playing some of his most consistent tennis of his life, as he’s now in the final for the third time in his last four events. As long as Thiem continues to serve at such a high level, he’s going to give himself a fair chance at the biggest victory of his career. Thiem has 13 career wins over top-10 players, and three of those victories have come this year. Thiem has a chance to win his third title of the year and his 11th for his career. Thiem has split his last 10 final appearances and is 8-5 in career final appearances on clay. Thiem has won 10 straight matches on clay court.

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Dominic Thiem vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 French Open Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Juan Martín del Potro that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 73 percent of his first serve points and 66 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 70 percent of his total service points and had just 19 unforced errors. Nadal has now won 30 of his last 35 sets played on clay and has lost just one set in this tournament. Nadal continues to return at a high level, makes very little unforced errors and pounces the second his opponent gives him a chance to take control of the match. Basically, it’s typical Nadal in the French Open. Nadal hopes to win his fourth title of the year and his 79th title of his career. Nadal is 56-8 in final appearances on clay in her career and has won nine of his last 10 final appearances overall. Nadal has also won six of his last eight grand slam final appearances and is 10-0 in French Open final appearances. Nadal has won 11 straight matches on clay court.

These two have played nine times and Nadal has won six of those matches. The most recent meeting was in this years Rome Masters, a match Thiem won in straight sets. All nine of the previous meetings have been on clay, and the last seven meetings have been decided in straight sets. Nadal is 2-0 against Thiem at the French Open. 

Thiem is clearly a live underdog in this match based on the amount of experience he has against Nadal on clay and the fact he’s won 33.3 percent of those matches on a surface almost nobody beats him on. Thiem also just beat Nadal a few weeks ago, winning 48 percent of his return points. However, Nadal has never lost in a French Open final and has lost just two career matches on this surface. I’m not sure how you bet against that. It’s also worth mentioning that Nadal rarely loses a final overall, as he’s won 11 of his last 15 final appearances. There’s just no betting against the Spaniard in this tournament. 

Nadal wins his 11th French Open title.

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