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Marin Cilic vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 Rogers Cup Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs. Marin Cilic

August 2018

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal meet in the quarterfinals of the 2018 tennis Rogers Open.

Marin Cilic is coming off a straight sets win over Diego Schwartzman that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Cilic won 83 percent of his first serve points and 45 percent of his second serve points. Cilic won 67 percent of his total service points and 51 percent of his return points, putting together one of his better showings in recent memory. When Cilic is having success with his return and winning 40 or more percent of those points, he’s simply not going to lose. Cilic has now won 12 of his last 14 matches played and has to be looked at as a contender to win this tournament, especially if he gets past this match. The second serve will be key for Cilic, something he’s struggled with recently. Cilic has won seven of his last 10 matches on hard court.

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Marin Cilic vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 Rogers Cup Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Stan Wawrinka that took 25 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 75 percent of his first serve points and 63 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 70 percent of his total service points and 40 percent of his return points, breaking on three of his seven chances. It wasn’t the prettiest match from Nadal overall, but if he’s going to serve at that level the rest of the way, he’ll be just fine. We know Nadal is great in all areas of the game, but when he’s not mixing in a breakable serve, he’s damn near unbeatable regardless of his competition. Nadal has a chance to make the semifinals of a Masters 1000 for the fourth time in his last six appearances. Nadal has won six of his last seven matches on hard court. 

These two have played seven times and Nadal has won five of those matches. The most recent match was in the 2018 Australian Open, a meeting Cilic won in five sets. Five of the seven meetings have been decided in straight sets.

Nadal has now won 20 of his last 22 matches, so while Cilic is playing well and capable of pulling the upset here if he can see some second serves, you can’t pick against the top ranked player in the world. Nadal has lost just three matches since the Davis Cup back in April. He’s winning without playing his best. Nadal still has a second gear to reach when needed.

Nadal reaches the semifinals.

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