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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 Rogers Cup Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Rafael Nadal vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

August 2018

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafael Nadal meet in the final of the 2018 tennis Rogers Open.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is coming off a three sets win over Kevin Anderson that took 36 games to decide. In the victory, Tsitsipas won 74 percent of his first serve points and 64 percent of his second serve points. Tsitsipas won 70 percent of his total service points and wasn’t broken once in his semifinals victory. Tsitsipas now has six wins over top-10 players this year and has been able to take full advance of the large number of Greek fans in the stadium. Tsitsipas has to be on cloud nine right now considering he’s saved match points in back-to-back matches and will be playing for the Rogers Cup title on his 20th birthday. A win here would easily be the biggest moment of Tsitsipas’ life and be a clear sign that he’s arrived. Tsitsipas has a chance to win his first ATP title of his career, and this is his second ever final appearance, with his first being in this years Barcelona Open. Tsitsipas has won eight of his last nine matches on hard court.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Rafael Nadal 2018 Rogers Cup Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Karen Khachanov that took 23 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 71 percent of his first serve points and 58 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 67 percent of his total service points and produced two breaks on seven break points. Nadal has now won 33 of his last 41 sets and is in his fifth final appearance since April. Nadal has a chance to win his fifth title of the year and his 80th of his career. Nadal is 18-25 in career final appearances on hard court and has won 10 of his last 11 final appearances overall. Nadal has a chance to win his fourth career Rogers Cup title. Nadal has won 10 of his last 12 matches on hard court.

These two have played once, which was in this years Barcelona Open, a match Nadal won in straight sets. The match took 15 games to be decided. 

There’s reasons to consider Tsitsipas in this match. He has a serious rest advantage due to Nadal playing a match that was delayed by rain. There’s a large Greek fanbase that’s supporting Tsitsipas. He’s playing confident, inspired tennis and it’s his birthday. All the stars are aligned. It wouldn’t shock me if Tsitsipas pulled the upset. But Nadal is Nadal, and experience matters in title matches. Tsitsipas is still a young kid who hasn’t been on this stage often and is playing somebody who has seen it all and doesn’t lose title matches. Nadal has won 10 of his last 11 final appearances and has been through quick turnarounds before. 

It would be quite a story if Tsitsipas won, but I’m not betting against Nadal.

 

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