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Madison Keys vs. Carla Suarez Navarro 2018 US Open Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Madison Keys

September 2018

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

Madison Keys and Carla Suarez Navarro meet in the quarterfinal round of the 2018 tennis US Open.

Madison Keys is coming off a straight sets win over Dominika Cibulkova that took 16 games to decide. In the victory, Keys won 83 percent of her first serve points and 65 percent of her second serve points. Keys won 75 percent of her total service points and had just 15 unforced errors. Keys has now had under 20 unforced errors in two of her last three matches, which is the most important number when betting on the American. Keys has the power to overwhelm anybody on hard court, so she controls nearly every point, but it comes down to how well she manages her power that determines the outcome. Keys playing clean tennis makes her a threat to win her first ever grand slam title. Keys has a chance to make her fourth career grand slam semifinal and back-to-back semifinals in the US Open. Keys is 3-2 in career grand slam quarterfinal matches. Keys has won seven of her last eight matches on hard court.

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Madison Keys vs. Carla Suarez Navarro 2018 US Open Tennis Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Carla Suarez Navarro is coming off a straight sets win over Maria Sharapova that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Navarro won 62 percent of her first serve points and 38 percent of her second serve points. Navarro won 54 percent of her total service points and converted on six of her eight break points. It obviously wasn’t the best performance from Navarro, but she was solid on the return, kept balls in play and forced her opponent to make tough shots. Navarro still doesn’t know when to be aggressive and takeover matches, but she gives herself a chance with her quality defense and ability to engage in long rallies. Navarro has a chance to make her first ever grand slam semifinal. Navarro is 0-6 in previous grand slam quarterfinal matches, with two of those matches coming since 2015. Navarro has won eight of her last nine matches on hard court. 

These two have played three times and Keys has won all three meetings in three sets. The most recent match was in the 2016 olympics, a match Keys won in 27 games. 

Navarro has a chance to win this match due to her defense and ability to keep balls in play, which is always dangerous with a player like Keys who goes big often and can hit herself out of matches. However, Navarro won’t be able to control any points in this game and unlike players before her, Keys can hit through that defense. This is a bad matchup for the Spaniard, and the only way she wins is if Keys has a performance where she’s an unforced error machine. Throw in the home crowd, and Keys should be heavily favored here.

Keys makes it back-to-back US Open semifinal trips.

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