Victoria Azarenka vs. Naomi Osaka – 8/29/20 Cincinnati Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka meet in the final of the 2020 tennis Western & Southern Open.

Naomi Osaka is coming off a straight sets win over Elise Mertens that took 21 games to decide. In the victory, Osaka won 71 percent of her first serve points and 42 percent of her second serve points. Osaka won 56 percent of her total service points and converted on five of her nine break points. Osaka saved 18 of her 21 break points and had four aces. Not the cleanest match ever, but Osaka will certainly take it. Osaka looks to win her first Premier 5 tournament title and the sixth title of her career overall. Osaka is 5-2 in career final appearances and all of those matches took place on hard court. Osaka has won six of her last seven matches on hard court.

Victoria Azarenka is coming off a three sets win over Johanna Konta that took 27 games to decide. In the victory, Azarenka won 75 percent of her first serve points and 43 percent of her second serve points. Azarenka won 63 percent of her total service points and converted on five of her 10 break points. Azarenka saved eight of her 11 break points and got 62 percent of her first serves in play. Azarenka is going to like her chances whenever she gets her first serve in play at such a high percentage. Azarenka looks to win her third career Premier 5 tournament title and her 21st career title overall. Azarenka has not won a final appearance since the 2016 Miami Open. Azarenka has 67 career wins over top-10 players, with three of those wins coming last year. Azarenka has won six of her last 10 matches on hard court.

These two have played three times and Osaka has won two of those matches, including the most recent match in the 2019 French Open. Azarenka has won the only match on hard court that came in the 2016 Australian Open. Two of the three matches were decided in straight sets.

Azarenka is playing her best tennis since her pregnancy and she’ll have a chance to win this match if she repeats her semifinal appearance and gets a high percentage of first serves in play. The problem is Azarenka has had issues with consistency and can throw away a game or two with sloppy play. That’s not going to cut it with Osaka, who sometimes needs just one break to close a set. Osaka should also have a great deal of confidence knowing she’s been able to win without playing her absolute best. 

I like Osaka to win her sixth career title.