Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz
May 6, 2022 10:00 am EDT
The Line: Carlos Alcaraz -125 / Rafael Nadal +100
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Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz meet in the quarterfinals of the 2022 tennis Madrid Open.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a three sets win over David Goffin that took 34 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 76 percent of his first serve points and 54 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 69 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his 11 break points. Nadal got 66 percent of his first serves in play and hit seven aces. It wasn’t always pretty, but Nadal pushed through the match that took over three hours and is in his 20th straight Masters quarterfinal. Nadal looks to make the semifinals of Madrid for the 12th time in his career. Nadal is 11-2 in career quarterfinal matches in Madrid. Nadal has won nine of his last 10 matches on clay court.
Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a three sets win over Cameron Norrie that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Alcaraz won 71 percent of his first serve points and 44 percent of his second serve points. Alcaraz won 63 percent of his total service points and converted on five of his seven break points. Alcaraz got 70 percent of his first serves in play and saved seven of his nine break points. Alcaraz has won seven matches overall and four straight matches that have gone the distance. Alcaraz looks to make his third career Masters semifinal match and is 2-0 in previous quarterfinal matches. Alcaraz has won seven straight matches on clay court.
Nadal has won both meetings against Alcaraz, which includes a three set win this year in Indian Wells. The other match took place last year in Madrid.
This is a quick turnaround for Alcaraz who also had to play a lengthy three set match. If there’s anything we know about Nadal it’s that conditioning isn’t an issue. And if anything, the three sets probably helps Nadal given that he doesn’t have a lot of matches under his belt lately. Also, we’re getting Nadal on clay in a tournament he’s owned over the last two decades at even money. This almost never happens.
Give me Nadal based on the value.