Diego Schwartzman vs Miomir Kecmanovic
May 10, 2022 6:30 am EDT
The Line: Miomir Kecmanovic +129 / Diego Schwartzman -164
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Diego Schwartzman and Miomir Kecmanovic meet in the first round of the 2022 tennis Italian Open.
Diego Schwartzman lost his second match in Madrid and enters this tournament with wins in seven of his last 10 matches overall. Schwartzman didn’t look good in his last effort, winning just 41 percent of his total service points and forcing just one break point. Losing his first set in six games, it’s fair to say Schwartzman should have some sort of motivation to get that bad taste out of his mouth. The good news for the Argentinian is that he has success at the Italian Open, making the semifinal in 2019 and the final in 2020. This is the only ATP 1000 tournament, Schwartzman has made at least two quarterfinals. Schwartzman has won seven of his last 10 matches on clay court.
Miomir Kecmanovic lost his second match in Madrid and enters this tournament with wins in six of his last nine matches overall. Kecmanovic should be feeling good about himself after forcing a competitive second set tiebreak against Rafael Nadal, nearly taking that match to the distance. Each of Kecmanovic’s last five losses have either gone the distance or included a tiebreak, so he’s not going down easy these days. Kecmanovic now looks for his first career win at the Italian Open, as he was first round exits each of the last two years. Kecmanovic has won six of his last nine matches on clay court.
Schwartzman has won both matches against Kecmanovic, both decided in straight sets. The matches took place in 2021 Buenos Aires and the 2020 French Open.
Kecmanovic doesn’t have a ton of success in big tournaments and has had zero success in two matches against Schwartzman, both of which took place on clay. Schwartzman really enjoys this tournament, and it’s his most successful Masters in terms of deep runs. You could argue this price should be steeper.
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I’ll gladly rake Schwartzman and the reasonable juice.