Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas 5/15/22 Italian Tennis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic meet in the final of the 2022 tennis Italian Open.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is coming off a three sets win over Alexander Zverev that took 28 games to decide. In the victory, Tsitsipas won 69 percent of his first serve points and 61 percent of his second serve points. Tsitsipas won 66 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his five break points. Tsitsipas got 60 percent of his first serves in play and saved two of his three break points. Tsitsipas has won four of his last five matches that have gone the distance. Tsitsipas looks for his second title of the year and his ninth title of his career. Tsitsipas looks for his third ATP 1000 title and the first at the Italian Open. Tsitsipas is 2-2 in ATP 1000 final appearances. Tsitsipas has won eight of his last 10 matches on clay court.

Novak Djokovic is coming off a straight set win over Casper Ruud that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Djokovic won 70 percent of his first serve points and 67 percent of his second serve points. Djokovic won 69 percent of his total service points and converted on four of his nine break points. Djokovic got 65 percent of his first serves in play and faced just one break point. Djokovic has won 13 of his last 15 sets. Djokovic looks to win his first title of the year and his 87th title of his career. Djokovic looks for his 38th ATP 1000 title and his sixth title at the Italian Open. Djokovic has won seven of his last nine matches on clay court.

Djokovic has won six of the nine meetings against Tsitsipas, including the most recent match in last year’s French Open. Tsitsipas’ last win over Djokovic came in a 2019 exhibition. Djokovic is 4-0 on clay against Tsitsipas and only three of the nine matches overall were decided in straight sets. 

Tsitsipas as an underdog of any kind is intriguing, but he’s had little to no success against Djokovic, especially on clay. Tsitsipas is also coming off a competitive three set match, so conditioning could be an issue on a quick turnaround.

Give me Djokovic, and I’ll side with him in straight sets to shave down the price.