Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda 5/27/22 French Open Tennis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Sebastian Korda and Carlos Alcaraz meet in the third round of the 2022 tennis French Open.

Sebastian Korda is coming off a straight set win over Richard Gasquet that took 31 games to decide. In the victory, Korda won 78 percent of his first serve points and 49 percent of his second serve points. Korda won 66 percent of his total service points and converted on five of his nine break points. Korda saved two of his four break points and hit nine aces. Korda has won his first six sets this tournament and has won back-to-back matches for the first time since Estoril back in late April. Korda looks to make the fourth round of a grand slam for the third time in his career. Korda is 2-1 in career grand slam third round matches. Korda has three career wins over top-10 players. Korda has split his last six matches on clay court.

Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a five sets win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas that took 55 games to decide. In the victory, Alcaraz won 72 percent of his first serve points and 59 percent of his second serve points. Alcaraz won 67 percent of his total service points and converted on eight of his 31 break points. Alcaraz came back after dropping two of the first three sets, but he has to be sharper with his second serve, and he was broken six times. Over four and a half hours to win the match, Alcaraz and his conditioning will be tested moving forward. Alcaraz looks to make his second career grand slam fourth round. Alcaraz is 1-1 in previous grand slam third round matches. Alcaraz has won 12 straight matches on clay court.

These two split the previous two meetings, as Alcaraz won a 2021 Next Ten meeting (straight sets) and Korda won this year in Monte Carlo (three sets). 

Alcaraz should be favored, as he was second on the odds to win the tournament before it began. I wouldn’t panic just yet after what we saw from Alcaraz in his last match. However, Korda just beat Alcaraz on clay a little over a month ago. He’s the fresher player, and he beat two respectable players in his first two rounds. This is a dangerous match for the Spaniard.

I still lean Alcaraz, but I’d back him in four or five sets.