Tennis Picks

Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek 9/8/22 US Open Tennis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka
September 8, 2022 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Aryna Sabalenka +175 / Iga Swiatek -227
(Get latest betting odds)

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka meet in the semifinal of the 2022 tennis US Open.

Iga Swiatek is coming off a straight set win over Jessica Pegula that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Swiatek won 50 percent of her first serve points and 50 percent of her second serve points. Swiatek won 50 percent of her total service points and converted on 7 of her 11 break points. Swiatek got 67 percent of her first serves in play and saved 4 of her 10 break points. Swiatek has now won 18 of her last 22 matches overall. Swiatek looks to make her third career grand slam final and is 2-1 in grand slam semifinal matches. Swiatek looks to make her seventh final appearance this year overall and her 11th career final appearance. Swiatek has 13 career wins over top-10 players, and 8 of those wins have come this year. Swiatek has won 8 of her last 10 matches on hard court.

Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a straight set win over Karolina Pliskova that took 20 games to decide. In the victory, Sabalenka won 72 percent of her first serve points and 63 percent of her second serve points. Sabalenka won 69 percent of her total service points and converted on 3 of her 7 break points. Sabalenka got 69 percent of her first serves in play and didn’t face a single break point. Sabalenka has now won 10 of her last 13 matches overall. Sabalenka looks to make her first career grand slam final appearance, as she’s 0-2 in previous semifinal matches. Sabalenka looks to make her third final appearance this year overall and her 18th final appearance of her career. Sabalenka has 18 career wins over top-10 players, and two of those wins have come this year. Sabalenka has won 8 of her last 9 matches on hard court.

Swiatek has won 3 of the 4 meetings against Sabalenka and each of the last 3 meetings. The most recent match was this year in Rome, a meeting Swiatek won in straight sets. Sabalenka’s lone win over Swiatek came in 2021 Guadalajara.

Swiatek is going to be favored given the body of work this year and the fact she’s won the last 3 meetings against Sabalenka. We’re also well aware of Sabalenka’s serving issues at times and her ability to pile up the unforced errors. With that said, Swiatek has been beatable at times this tournament and her opponents just haven’t been able to take advantage. Swiatek won just 50 percent of her total service points in her quarterfinal match. If Sabalenka plays clean like she did her last time out, she’ll have a shot to pull the upset.

I’ll take a stab with Sabalenka and the plus money.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Aryna Sabalenka +175

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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