Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa fight Saturday in UFC 271 at the Toyota Center. Lewis enters this fight with a 26-8 record and has won 81 percent of his fights by knockout. Tuivasa enters this fight with a 13-3 record and has won 92 percent of his fights by knockout.
Lewis has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a December win over Chris Daukaus. Lewis is averaging 2.52 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.48 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Lewis is coming off a knockout win at UFC Vegas 45 where he broke the UFC record for most knockout wins with 13. In the victory, Lewis landed 14 total strikes and ate 10 total strikes. Each of Lewis’ last three wins have come by knockout. There are no surprises with Lewis when he steps into the octagon, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 19 of his last 23 wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that turns a fight. Lewis doesn’t have much of a ground game, and he has a reputation for tiring quickly, so he’s going to live and die with his stand-up striking. However, Lewis has built his stamina over the years and looks more comfortable after the first round. Lewis is a boxer with a blue belt in BJJ, and he will have the edge with most fighters on the feet. This will be Lewis’ 12th career fight in Texas, his residence.
Tuivasa has won his last four fights, and he’s coming off a December win over Augusto Sakai. Tuivasa is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Tuivasa is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Tuivasa is coming off a second round knockout at UFC 269 where he landed 44 total strikes and 65 percent of his significant strikes. Tuivasa has earned back-to-back performance of the night honors. Tuivasa is quite an athlete for a guy his size, and he’s a very powerful striker with heavy hands and violent elbows. Tuivasa throws in a leg kick sometimes, and he closes the distance well and is effective in the clinch. With a boxing and kickboxing background, Tuivasa has produced knockouts in 12 of his 13 career wins and most of those knockouts have come via punches. There’s really no secrets with Tuivasa inside the octagon. This will be Tuivasa’s first career fight in Texas.
This should be a fun fight between two guys with similar styles. They want to stand and bang, so expect big shots and somebody likely to fall at some point. The difference here is Lewis has a four-inch reach advantage and probably has a slight raw power edge as well. We also can’t overlook the fight taking place in Texas, making Lewis a massive crowd favorite. Tuivasa is slightly more accurate and can switch stances, but I can’t bet against Lewis here.
Give me Lewis, and I’ll take him by knockout to shave the price.