Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier fight Saturday in UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena. Adesanya enters this fight with a 22-1 record and has won 68 percent of his fights by knockout. Cannonier enters this fight with a 15-5 record and has won 67 percent of his fights by knockout.
Adesanya has won 6 of his last 7 fights, and he’s coming off a February win over Robert Whittaker. Adesanya is averaging 3.84 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. He is averaging 0.00 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Adesanya is coming off a decision win at UFC 271 where he landed 98 total strikes and 46 percent of his significant strikes. Adesanya has seen each of his last 3 fights go the distance, and he’s won 7 of his 8 career decisions. Adesanya is simply an athletic freak who comes from a kickboxing and boxing background and is as crafty and creative as they come. He is long, rangy with an 80-inch reach, mixes in his leg kicks well and has an unorthodox stance. It’s hard to predict what Adesanya is going to do next, making him a very dangerous fighter. At nearly 33 years old, Adesanya is still one of the best in the sport regardless of weight class. This will be Adesanya’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
Cannonier has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is coming off a February win over Derek Brunson. Cannonier is averaging 3.76 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Cannonier is averaging 0.23 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Cannonier is coming off a knockout win at UFC 271 where he landed 61 total strikes and 61 percent of his significant strikes. The bout earned performance of the night, and Cannonier has now produced knockouts in 5 of his last 6 victories. Cannonier is an athletic pressure fighter with good work rate and cardio, and he has clear power in his hands and legs. Cannonier throws bombs standing up, but he’s also effective in the clinch and can more than hold his own on the canvas, where he has good takedown ability and has 3 career submission victories. A purple belt in BJJ, Cannonier has never been submitted in his career. This will be Cannonier’s fifth career fight in Nevada.
It’s hard to turn down plus money with Cannonier and this line is rather disrespectful given how big of an underdog he is here. Cannonier is too balanced of a fighter to be this big of an underdog. With that said, Adesanya has a clear athletic advantage, and he has a big size advantage as well. With all the angles Adesanya creates, it’s going to be tough for Cannonier to counter on the feet. Adesanya also has a good takedown defense, so Cannonier will have to do some damage standing up. I can’t bet against Adesanya in this spot, even if the line is crazy.
I’ll take Adesanya inside distance to turn big juice into plus money.