Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush fight Saturday in UFC 289 at the Rogers Arena. Oliveira enters this fight with a 33-9 record and is winning 64 percent of his fights by submission. Dariush enters this fight with a 22-4-1 record and has won 41 percent of his fights by decision.

Charles Oliveira Betting Preview 

Oliveira has won 11 of his last 12 fights and is coming off an October loss to Islam Makhachev. Oliveira is averaging 3.48 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Oliveira is averaging 2.37 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Oliveira is coming off a submission loss at UFC 280 where he landed 25 total strikes and was taken down twice. The loss snapped an 11 fight winning streak and was the first time Oliveira lost since UFC 218. Oliveira now looks to avoid back to back losses for the first time since 2016. Oliveira is one of the better grapplers in the sport who has a high takedown percentage and an impressive submission game to where nobody wants to fight him on the canvas. Oliveira has 21 career submission victories, and 9 of those wins came by rear-naked choke. While Oliveira is known for his scrappy ground game, he’s also proven he can hold his own on his feet, as he moves well, mixes in leg kicks and gets in and out with his combinations. Oliveira has quickly become a balanced fighter who finishes fights on his terms and is almost always the most exciting fighter on the card. This will be Oliveira’s fifth career fight in Canada.

Beneil Dariush Betting Preview

Dariush has won each of his last 8 fights and is coming off an October win over Mateusz Gamrot. Dariush is averaging 3.81 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Dariush is averaging 1.95 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Dariush is coming off a decision win at UFC 280 where he landed 67 total strikes and ate 38 strikes. Dariush has won all 9 of his career decisions and hasn’t lost a bout since UFC 222. Dariush is a black belt in both BJJ and Muay Thai, so he’s pretty much comfortable wherever the fight goes. At 34 years old, Dariush has a nasty submission game with 8 finishes. Dariush also has an impressive gas tank and usually gets stronger the longer the fight goes. A decent standup and uses his legs very well, Dariush can leave himself open on his feet, and it’s led to him getting knocked out in 3 of his 4 career losses. This will be Dariush’s first career fight in Canada.

H2H History 

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

Dariush has the grappling and wrestling ability to challenge Oliveira, and his high takedown defense will be key as well. I can see why Dariush is favored here. However, Dariush is the lesser defensive fighter of the two, and Oliveira has improved his striking over the years to where he could change things on the feet. Also, one loss doesn’t change the fact Oliveira is one of the scarier fighters on the ground, and there’s still value seeing him in the underdog role. Oliveira has won 4 of his last 5 fights as an underdog.

Coin flip fight. Give me the more favorable price in Oliveira.