Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 202 at the UFC Apex. Makhachev enters this fight with a 21-1 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by submission. Green enters this fight with a 29-12-1 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by decision.
Makhachev has won each of his last nine fights and is coming off an October win over Dan Hooker. Makhachev is averaging 2.21 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Makhachev is averaging 3.37 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Makhachev is coming off a submission win at UFC 267 and has now won each of his last three fights by the finish. Makhachev fought three times last year and is 10-1 under the UFC banner. Makhachev has a background in sanshou, judo and sambo, so he’s highly effective in close range, relentless with his takedown attempts and almost always has the edge on the canvas. Makhachev grew up with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and they often train together, so it’s no surprise he has a similar fighting style and wants to drag his opponent into deep waters. Makhachev has never been submitted in his career, and his stand-up striking is a little more polished than Khabib’s. This will be Makhachev’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
Green has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a February win over Nasrat Haqparast. Green is averaging 5.93 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Green is averaging 1.36 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Green is coming off a decision victory at UFC 271 where he landed 188 total strikes and 52 percent of his significant strikes. Green has now seen 11 of his last 12 fights end in a decision. It’s going to be interesting to see how Green responds with such a massive quick turnaround and a big weight cut. Green comes from a wrestling and boxing background, and he has a blue belt in BJJ. Green seems more polished as a striker, as he’s heavy-handed, has good ground and pound and closes the distance well. Green also has eight career submission victories, as he has decent scrambling skills, and three of those victories have come by guillotine choke. This will be Green’s 10th career fight in Nevada.
I’m a fan of Green, and you have to respect him for taking this fight on extremely short notice. The odds are stacked against him, and he’s still willing to step in there to give it a shot. I’m pulling for him to shock the world. With that said, Makhachev should have his way in this bout given the rest advantage, the wrestling edge and fighting at his more natural weight. This would be a huge upset if Green can pull it off and put him in the early convo for fighter of the year.
I still have to side with Makhachev and take him by decision to shave down the price.