Matt Schnell and Su Mudaerji fight Saturday in UFC on ABC 3 at the UBS Arena. Schnell enters this fight with a 15-6 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by submission. Sumudaerji enters this fight with a 16-4 record and has won 81 percent of his fights by knockout.
Schnell has won 5 of his last 8 fights and is coming off a May win over Brandon Royval. Schnell is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Schnell is averaging 0.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Schnell is coming off a submission loss at UFC 274 that earned fight of the night honors. In the loss, Schnell landed 15 total strikes and 36 percent of his significant strikes. Schnell now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Schnell is a black belt in karate and a purple belt in BJJ, and he has impressive striking numbers for somebody who has 8 career submission victories. Three of Schnell’s submissions have come by triangle choke, and he won back to back fights that way in 2019. Schnell misses in kicks well and does a lot of his striking from a distance, but he’s most dangerous when he gets his hands on his opponent as he’s sneaky with those submission holds. This will be Schnell’s first career fight in New York.
Sumudaerji has won 7 of his last 9 fights and is coming off a January (2021) win over Zarrukh Adashev. Sumudaerji is averaging 4.49 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Sumudaerji is averaging 0.40 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Sumudaerji is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 20 where he landed 50 total strikes and 39 percent of his significant strikes. Sumudaerji has now won each of his last 3 fights and is 3-1 under the UFC banner. Sumudaerji will fight for the first time in over a year as he had a knee injury and then his bout at UFC Fight Night 205 was canceled. Sumudaerji comes from a sanda background, so he’s most comfortable on the feet where he lets his hands and feet go. Sumudaerji has seen 13 of his 16 career victories end in knockout. Polished defensively on the feet as well, Sumudaerji has seen all 4 of his losses end in submission. Sumudaerji wants a fight on the feet, and his polished striking has proven to get the job every time. This will be Sumudaerji’s first career fight in New York.
Schnell has a chance to win this fight if he can close the distance and get his hands on his opponent. The difference is Schnell doesn’t have the striking to hang with Sumudaerji, and he’s likely to be outclassed by the southpaw. Sumudaerji also does a good job of controlling the distance, and his takedown defense is quality as well.
This is a fight Sumudaerji should win, and I’d take him to win inside distance to shave down the juice.