Andrei Arlovski and Jake Collier fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 35 at the UFC Apex. Arlovski enters this fight with a 33-20 record and has won 52 percent of his fights by knockout. Collier enters this fight with a 13-6 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by knockout.
Arlovski has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a February win over Jared Vanderaa. Arlovski is averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Arlovski is averaging 0.42 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Arlovski is coming off a decision win at UFC 271 where he landed 71 total strikes and 48 percent of his significant strikes. Arlovski has broken out of a slump and has a chance to win four fights in just over a calendar year. Arlovski is an accurate striker who comes from a sambo, judo and kickboxing background. Arlovski hasn’t had a knockout win since UFC 187, but the power is still there despite him being 43 years old early next year. Arlovski has seen five of his last six fights go the distance. Arlovski is effective in the clinch, has high level takedown defense, and his grappling is about as good as it gets in the heavyweight division. The concern with Arlovski has always been his chin, as he’s been knocked out 11 times in 20 career losses. This will be Arlovski’s 17th career fight in Nevada.
Collier has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a January win over Chase Sherman. Collier is averaging 5.59 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Collier is averaging 0.62 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 26 percent. Collier is coming off a submission win at UFC on ESPN 32 that earned performance of the night. Collier now looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2013-14. Collier has some power behind his shots and has produced five career knockouts, but he also has solid BJJ and is good at staying busy in the clinch. Collier also has underrated cardio that’s helped him win four of his six career decisions. At 33 years old, Collier needs to take advantage of fights like this and start striking together some victories. This will be Collier’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
Collier is the busier, younger fighter, so there’s a path for him to win this fight. However, Collier has had issues stringing together wins, and it’s tough to back him with confidence given the track record. Arlovski is up there in age, but he’s found the fountain of youth lately, and he’s been rather impressive over the last year. Arlovski has a chance to win four fights in pretty much a full year, putting himself in great company. I have to ride the hot hand here and side with Arlovski for the victory.