Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 46 at the UFC Apex. Caceres enters this fight with a 20-13 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by decision. Pineda enters this fight with a 28-14 record and has won 68 percent of his fights by submission.

Alex Caceres Betting Preview

Caceres has won 6 of his last 7 fights and is coming off a December win over Julian Erosa. Caceres is averaging 4.16 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Caceres is averaging 0.57 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 70 percent. Caceres is coming off a knockout win at UFC Fight Night 216 that earned performance of the night honors. In the victory, landed 16 total strikes and ate 10 total strikes. As he approaches 35 years old, Caceres is enjoying the best stretch of his career. Caceres is a southpaw from Miami who has decent strike accuracy, but he’s at his best grappling and getting fights on the ground. Caceres has 7 career submissions, and he’s won 9 of his 14 career decisions. Caceres has also been submitted 7 times, but it’s clear what his approach is heading into the octagon. This will be Caceres’ 10th career fight in Nevada.

Daniel Pineda Betting Preview

Pineda has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a March win over Tucker Lutz. He is averaging 3.32 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Pineda is averaging 1.47 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Pineda is coming off a submission win at UFC on ESPN 43 that earned performance of the night honors. In the win, Pineda landed 41 total strikes and produced 1 takedown. The Pit is approaching 38 years old and has a background in wrestling along with a black belt in BJJ. He’s usually an exciting fighter who has seen all 28 of his victories end in finishes. In fact, only 5 of Pineda’s 45 fights overall have seen decisions. Pineda is most comfortable in the clinch or on the canvas, but he can hold his own standing up as well. It’s going to be interesting to see how Pineda responds with a quick turnaround, as he’s not exactly on the young side anymore. This will be Pineda’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

H2H History

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

Caceres has a significant size advantage with a 4-inch reach advantage, he’s the more accurate striker, and he has a takedown defense that won’t be easy for Pineda. Also, Pineda is fighting again after a quick turnaround, and that’s a little concerning given that he is getting up there in age, and he’s fought just once in the last 2 years.

Give me Caceres and the somewhat reasonable price.