The Northern Illinois Huskies and the Ball State Cardinals will meet Saturday in college football action from Scheumann Stadium. Here’s a Ball State vs NIU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Ball State vs NIU pick.
Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview
This year the Huskies kicked off with a 54-15 win over Western Illinois and a 16-14 victory versus Notre Dame in their first pair. After losses to Buffalo 23-20 (OT) and NC State 24-17, NIU beat UMass 34-20 and Bowling Green 17-7.
In the Toledo matchup last weekend the Huskies were outscored 6-0 in the second half during a close loss 13-6. QB Josh Holst finished with 210 yards, and Gavin Williams led the rush with 78 yards from 16 carries. Cam Thompson caught five balls for 80 yards.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview
Over on the Cardinals’ side, they beat Missouri State 42-34 in their opener then fell to Miami-FL 62-0, Central Michigan 37-34, James Madison 63-7, and Western Michigan 45-42. Game six was a win, however, as Ball State took out Kent State 37-35.
Matched up against Vanderbilt on Saturday the Cardinals gave up 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter during a tough loss 24-14. QB Kadin Semonza logged 190 yards and a TD. Vaughn Pemberton rushed five times for 32 yards, and Tanner Koziol caught nine balls for 68 yards and a score.
Why the Ball State Cardinals will win
- Northern Illinois has lost four of its last five October games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The underdog has won four of the last five games between Northern Illinois and Ball State.
- Ball State has covered the spread in each of its last six games at Scheumann Stadium.
- Northern Illinois has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Northern Illinois has lost the first half in six of its last seven road games against conference opponents.
Why the Northern Illinois Huskies will win
- The favorite has won each of Ball State’s last nine games.
- Ball State has lost each of its last six games as an underdog.
- Northern Illinois has covered the spread in nine of its last 12 games against Ball State.
- Northern Illinois has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Northern Illinois’ last 10 games as a road favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of Ball State’s last seven home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ball State ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (16.3).
- Ball State ranks 134th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (24.0).
- Northern Illinois ranks 3rd among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (258.9).
- Northern Illinois ranks 3rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (34:15).
Ball State vs NIU Prediction
I’ll lean toward Ball State, but I’m probably staying away. The Cardinals gained a tepid 268 yards (190 passing) in their latest loss to Vanderbilt, adding 16 first downs and a rough 2-of-9 rate on third-down conversions. It was quite the step backward after scoring a combined 79 points over the previous pair.
As for NIU, they went just 4-of-19 on third downs and 2-of-8 on fourth downs in their low-scoring loss to Toledo over the weekend. The Huskies held the ball for 36:14 but could only muster six points. This one could probably go either way but I’m thinking Ball State has a better cover shot.