The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Minnesota Golden Gophers meet Thursday in college football action from TCF Bank Stadium. Here’s a Minnesota vs North Carolina Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Minnesota vs North Carolina pick.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
In their 2023 campaign, the Tar Heels posted a reasonable 8-5 overall record and a 4-4 run in a tough Atlantic Coast Conference. That would put North Carolina in sixth place among the standings behind Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels would earn a berth in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, where they lost 30-10 to West Virginia.
In head coach Mack Brown’s sixth season at the helm, the major departure is QB Drake Maye, who ended up a top-three pick in the NFL Draft. LB Cedric Gray and WR Devontez Walker are also off to the pro ranks, giving North Carolina something of an underdog status this year.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview
Over on the Gophers’ side, they’re coming off a tough season in a difficult Big Ten Conference. Minnesota ended up going 6-7 overall and 3-6 in conference play, which put them just two spots out of the basement in the West Division. The Gophers finished ahead of only Nebraska and Purdue in the standings. The good news was the Quick Lane Bowl win, 30-24 over Bowling Green.
PJ Fleck is once again on the sidelines for Minnesota, his eighth season as head coach. There will be a host of new faces joining the program this year, not to mention a host of new teams in the Big Ten standings. The passing game needs to get better in order to see any improvement in the standings, and that’ll start with incoming transfer Max Brosmer.
Total Points Facts
- Each of North Carolina’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of Minnesota’s last seven season openers as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Minnesota was one of only 13 FBS teams to win 3+ games when trailing at HT last season.
- Minnesota was one of only 19 FBS teams to win 2+ games when trailing after Q3 last season.
- North Carolina ranked 5th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (9.6).
- North Carolina ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.615).
Why the Minnesota Golden Gophers will win
- Minnesota has won 18 of its last 19 games against non-conference opponents at Huntington Bank Stadium.
- North Carolina has lost each of its last three games.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
- Minnesota has covered the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at Huntington Bank Stadium.
- Minnesota has won the first quarter in six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents at Huntington Bank Stadium.
- Minnesota has won the first half in 15 of its last 17 games against non-conference opponents at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Minnesota vs North Carolina Prediction
I might take a stab on Minnesota here. The Gophers offense could use a shot in the arm this season. They’re coming off an average of 300.9 yards per game last year, which put them near the bottom of the Big Ten rankings. Minnesota logged a paltry 143.4 passing yards per game in 2023 but that number should ratchet up if all goes well.
As for North Carolina, they’ve got some holes to plug on offense themselves. That said, the return of All-ACC RB Omarion Hampton should help matters greatly. We may see some offensive miscues and general sloppy play at times during this opener, but I also expect a few flashes of potential. Should be an interesting matchup.