In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 28th at the Citizens Bank Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 76-57 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 42-22 home record, and are 57-68 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-6 home defeat by the Mets, and have three consecutive losses. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and are playing the Brewers and the Marlins next.
The Phillies have a .256 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 163 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .297 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 110 RBI and a team-high 45 home runs.
Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 2-7 record, 6.52 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Atlanta Braves have a 61-72 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL East. The Braves have a 28-39 road record and 61-62 in over/under. They are coming off a 12-1 road victory over the Marlins, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games and are playing the Cubs and the Mariners next.
The Braves have a .244 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 4.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Braves with 136 hits, and he is also the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 74, while Marcell Ozuna leads the team in home runs with 20.
Cal Quantrill (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 4-11 record, 5.51 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
- The Braves have lost each of their last five games against the Phillies following a win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Braves following a road loss.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games following a win.
- The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have lost four of their last five night games against National League opponents.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Thursday night games.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Four of the Phillies’ last five home games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Thirteen of the Braves’ last 17 night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last eight night games at Citizens Bank Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven games between the Braves and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1224).
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (359).
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (483).
- The Braves rank 24th in the league for steals this season (68).
Braves vs Phillies Prediction
The Phillies are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Braves, and are 3-1 in their last 4 home meetings in Philadelphia. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 meetings.
In this Braves vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -200 home favorites. In no way shape or form I will lay -200 with the Phillies with Nola on the mound. He has been atrocious this season, and while he had just two earned runs in his last start, he had 19 in his three start prior to that. On the flip side, we have Quantrill, who looked bad in his Braves debut with 3 earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched, and he has been in terrible form lately, having 7 earned runs twice in his last four starts. He has been torched by the Phillies this season, with 10 earned runs in 7.1 innings pitched in his two starts, so I expect both pitchers to give up a ton of runs. Both teams are slightly better against righties, averaging 9.5 runs per game combined, and both bullpens have been shaky to terrible. Atlanta has score 11+ runs in back-to-back games. Take the over 9.5 runs.