The Milwaukee Brewers are visiting the Miami Marlins on Friday, July 4th at the loanDepot park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Brewers vs Marlins Prediction. We will examine:
The Miami Marlins recent form and player performance
The Milwaukee Brewers recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Milwaukee Brewers
Recent betting trends in games played between the Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins game
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 39-46 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 19-25 home record and are 42-42 in over/under. They are coming off 4-1 home victory over the Twins, and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Under is 3-0 in their last 3 games and are playing the Reds and the Orioles next.
The Marlins have a .254 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .390 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 79 hits and is the team’s best hitter with a .286 batting average. Kyle Stowers adds team-highs in RBI with 45 and in home runs with 15.
Sandy Alcantara (R) will take the mound for the Marlins, and he has a 4-8 record, 6.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 48-39 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. They have a 21-22 road record and are 35-49 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 road defeat by the Mets, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Over is 6-4 in their last 10 games, and are playing the Dodgers and the Nationals next.
The Brewers have a .247 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .383 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Jackson Churio leads the Brewers with 93 hits, while Christian Yelich leads the team in RBI, with 61, adding a team-high 17 home runs. Sal Frelick is the team’s best hitter with a .296 batting average.
Quinn Priester (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 6-2 record, 3.35 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won each of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as road favorites.
- The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Brewers have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Brewers have won six of their last seven games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games after playing the previous day.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in five of their last six road games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Marlins’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Brewers’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Brewers’ last 13 night games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
- The Marlins rank 26th in the league for home runs this season (75).
- The Brewers rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (99).
- The Brewers rank 5th in the league for walks this season (305).
Brewers vs Marlins Prediction
The Marlins are 6-2 in their last 8 overall meetings against the Brewers, and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Miami. Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 meetings.
In this Brewers vs Marlins Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -115 road favorites. The Brewers are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record, but they have been mediocre on the road, and are going up against one of the hottest teams currently in the league. The Brewers have a better bullpen and a better offense, but I cannot fade the Marlins right now. Alcantara has been playing better at home, and I believe that this will be enough for a home win for the Miami Marlins.