Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction 7/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 4th at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 37-50 this year after they won two out of three against Detroit by scores of 2-11, 9-4, and 11-7. In their game three win, Washington led 9-3 in the fifth inning, but their lead was cut to 9-7 before they put the game away. The Nationals recorded 15 hits in the game, and they were led by Call and DeJong, who both had three RBIs in the win. Washington started Irvin, who allowed three hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Henry and Lord allowed two earned runs each in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Nationals won two out of three against the Angels, but lost two out of three against the Padres before that. Washington has won three of their last four games, and they are currently last in the NL East standings. The Washington pitching staff has a 5.09 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a .261 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 388 runs with a .247 batting average and a .313 on-base percentage this season. James Wood has led Washington with 23 home runs and 67 RBIs, while Nathaniel Lowe has added 13 home runs and 58 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Michael Soroka, who is 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 59.1 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 43-45 this season after they won two out of three against Cincinnati by scores of 13-6, 5-3, and 4-8. In their game three loss, Boston led 3-0 in the sixth inning, but allowed eight of the last nine runs for the loss. The Red Sox recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Abreu and Gonzalez, who both had two RBIs in the loss. Boston started Bernardino, who allowed one hit over 1.2 innings, while Weissert allowed three earned runs for the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Blue Jays and all three against the Angels. Boston has won three of their last five games, and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 421 runs with a .251 batting average and a .323 on-base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 17 home runs and 48 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 12 home runs and 47 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 58.2 innings pitched this season.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost eight of their last nine games following a win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last four games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five day games.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last six home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Red Sox and Nationals.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Josh Bell has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL East opponents.
• Michael Soroka has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
• Jacob Young has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances after playing the previous day.
• CJ Abrams has recorded a Double in three of the Nationals’ last four day games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Lucas Giolito has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites against NL opponents.

Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction 

Washington comes into this contest after picking up a very nice series win over Detroit, and they will try to keep that momentum here. The Nationals are 18-25 at home this year, while the Red Sox are 18-25 on the road. Boston did win two out of three against Cincinnati in their last series, but they have been a big disappointment this year. The Red Sox are starting Giolito, who has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last four starts. The Nats are going with Soroka, who has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four. I really like how Giolito has looked recently, so give me the Sox here.