In this article we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 29th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Reds Coming Off of Bad Loss
The Cincinnati Reds are 50-55 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against Tampa Bay, where they lost two out of three games and crumbled in the eighth inning on Sunday. Prior to that series, the Reds won two games against the Braves, lost all three against the Nationals, and won two out of three against the Marlins. Cincinnati is 3-6 in their last nine games and they are fourth in the NL Central.
The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 460 runs with a .228 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .263 with 18 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored three runs or fewer in three straight games.
Cubs With a Nice Series Win
The Chicago Cubs are 51-56 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. Chicago is coming off of a series win against Kansas City, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Cubs lost two out of three against the Brewers, lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, and split four games with the Cardinals. Chicago is 4-3 in their last seven games and they are tied for fourth in the NL Central.
The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Cubs offense has scored 440 runs with a .233 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Seiya Suzuki is batting .268 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Cubs this season. Chicago has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 7-5 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 100.1 innings pitched this year. Taillon has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Carson Spiers, who is 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 47.0 innings pitched this season. Spiers has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts.
Why the Cubs will beat the Reds
- The Reds have lost five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
- The road team has won four of the Cubs’ last five games.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Reds’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five night games between the Cubs and Reds.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last four night games at Great American Ball Park.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents.
- Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six home appearances against NL opponents.
- Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in each of the Reds’ last seven games against NL Central opponents.
- Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents.
- Jonathan India has scored at least one run in four of the Reds’ last five home games.
- Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one total base in each of the Cubs’ last 11 road games against NL opponents.
- Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
- Seiya Suzuki has recorded an RBI in each of the Cubs’ last three road games against NL Central opponents.
- Seiya Suzuki has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances at Great American Ball Park.
- Patrick Wisdom has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances.
- Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 11 road games against NL opponents.
- Nico Hoerner has scored a run in four of the Cubs’ last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against the Reds.
- Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cubs’ last nine games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (152).
- The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (785).
- The Chicago Cubs rank T6th in the league for walks this season (357).
- The Chicago Cubs rank 6th in the league for ERA this season (3.72).
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
These two teams come into this series tied for fourth in the NL Central and they are five games back in the NL Wild Card race, so they need to make a move soon if they want to stay in the race. The Cubs are 24-31 on the road this year, while the Reds are 25-28 at home. Cincinnati completely fell apart in their game on Sunday, so it will be interesting to see if that bleeds over into this game. The Reds are going with Carson Spiers, who has been below average in recent outings, and is coming off of the IL. The Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who has had a very good season so far. I really don’t like what I saw from the Reds on Sunday and I don’t think Spiers is a great option on the mound, so my Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction is for the Cubs to win.