Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 7-29-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 29th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Brewers Continue to Roll in the NL Central 

The Milwaukee Brewers are 60-45 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series loss against Miami, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Brewers won two out of three against the Cubs, won both games against the Twins, and lost two out of three against the Nationals. Milwaukee is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are first in the NL Central. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 498 runs with a .254 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .244 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee has scored three runs or fewer in five of their last six games. 

Braves Looking for Three Straight 

The Atlanta Braves are 56-48 this year and they have won two games in a row. Atlanta is coming off of a series split with the Mets, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Braves lost both games against the Reds, lost two out of three against the Cardinals, and won two out of three against the Padres. Atlanta is just 2-6 in their last eight games and they are second in the NL East. 

The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Diamondbacks offense has scored 441 runs with a .239 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .306 with 30 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Braves this season. Atlanta has scored at least four runs in four of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Colin Rea, who is 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 110.0 innings pitched this year. Rea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Grant Holmes, who is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 23.1 innings pitched this season. Holmes has allowed five earned runs in his last 13.1 innings, which have all come in relief. 

Why the Brewers will beat the Braves

• The Braves have lost each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The home team has won four of the last five games between the Braves and Brewers.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Braves and Brewers.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Brewers’ last six games as favorites against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Braves’ last five night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last eight Monday games.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Braves.
• Jackson Chourio has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Rhys Hoskins has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Braves.
• William Contreras has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Brewers’ last nine home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six home appearances against the Braves.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in five of the Braves’ last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Ozzie Albies has scored a run in each of the Braves’ last seven games against the Brewers.
• Orlando Arcia has recorded a Single in each of the Braves’ last six night games.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 18 appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Braves’ last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.331).
• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (138).
• The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (96).
• The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (385).

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 

Atlanta comes into this series struggling over the last two weeks, but they did win on Saturday and Sunday, and will look to keep building momentum here. The Braves are 26-27 on the road, while the Brewers are 30-19 at home this season. Milwaukee has been a little up and down over the last two months, but they have not had much pressure in the NL Central standings. The Brewers are starting Rea, who has pitched pretty well in recent starts. The Braves are going with Holmes, who is only expected to go a few innings in this one. Atlanta was able to save the series split with the Mets, but they aren’t nearly as good on the road and I don’t love their pitching situation here. My Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves prediction is for the Brewers to win.