In this article, we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 22nd at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 76-80 this year and they have split their last four games. Cincinnati has won the first two games in this series by scores of 8-3 and 7-1. Prior to this series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Braves, won two out of three against the Twins, and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. Cincinnati is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the NL Central.
The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.13 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Reds’ offense has scored 693 runs with a .234 batting average and a .307 on-base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .263 with 25 home runs and 74 RBI’s for the Reds this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 72-83 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Pittsburgh has lost the first two games in this series and they have allowed 15 runs in the two games. Prior to this series, the Pirates lost three out of four against the Cardinals, lost two out of three against the Royals, and swept the Marlins. Pittsburgh is 6-7 in their last 13 games and they are last in the NL Central.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Pirates’ offense has scored 640 runs with a .236 batting average and a .302 on-base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .276 with 22 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Pirates this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Hunter Greene, who is 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 143.1 innings pitched this year. Greene has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts but has been on the IL for just over a month. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 126.0 innings pitched this season. Skenes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings.
Why the Pirates will beat the Reds
- The Pirates have won each of their last six games as favorites following a road loss.
- The Reds have lost six of their last seven-day games against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Reds’ last four games.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Ten of the Pirates’ last 11-day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Reds’ last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven-day games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- TJ Friedl has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded a Double in four of the Reds’ last five games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- Ty France has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Pirates.
- Jake Fraley has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in each of the Reds’ last seven games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Hunter Greene has recorded eight or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Jake Fraley has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Hunter Greene has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances against NL opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against NL Central opponents.
- Jack Suwinski has scored a run in each of his last six appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL opponents.
- Yasmani Grandal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances in day games.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Cincinnati comes into this matchup after dominating the first two games in this series and they will go for the sweep here. The Reds are 39-41 at home this season, while the Pirates are just 34-43 on the road. These two teams are sitting at the bottom of the NL Central standings, but the Reds have played pretty well recently. This should be a great pitching matchup, but Greene worries me after his month-long stay on the IL. Take the Pirates to get the win here.