In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, September 16th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have an 80-72 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 43-34 home record and are coming off a 2-4 home loss against the Marlins. They will face the Yankees and the Rockies next.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .243 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Gabriel Moreno is the team’s best hitter with a .303 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 74, while Nolan Arenado adds a team-high 25 home runs.
Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 9-13 record, 4.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 75-77 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 30-44 away record and are coming off a 4-2 road win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Padres and the Cubs next.
The Miami Marlins have a .249 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .401 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average, adding a team-high 69 RBI. Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 24 home runs.
Ryan Gusto (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 1-5 record, 4.14 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: September 16, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly Record this season: 9-13 ERA: 4.97
- Home Record: 4-5
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-3
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Marlins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Diamondbacks have won eight of their last nine night games following a home loss.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against NL opponents after going to extra innings.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 night games against NL opponents.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight night games.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six night games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto Record this season: 1-5 ERA: 4.14
- Road Record: 0-2
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won each of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a road win.
- The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last 11 road games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games at Chase Field against NL opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight home games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Sixteen of the Marlins’ last 20 road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 14 of the Marlins’ last 16 road games against NL opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight night games.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Lars Nootbaar has hit a home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his 13 previous home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against the Marlins.
- Gabriel Moreno ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.303) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Javier Sanoja has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Ryan Gusto has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last three road appearances.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (180) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (36).
- The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1063).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (35).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (151).
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction
The Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings against the Dbacks and are 4-1 in their last 5 visits in Arizona.
In this Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction, the Diamondbacks are coming as -130 road favorites. I like the Dbacks in a bounce-back spot at home, as they are fighting for a wild card spot. Kelly has given up one and zero runs in two of his last three starts, while Gusto has been bad on the road with a 4.45 ERA. On top of that, the Dbacks have a better bullpen, so I expect them to take care of business at home in this one. Take the Dbacks to win.