In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, July 1st in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 40‑46 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 23‑25 home record and are coming off a 0‑3 home defeat against the Mets. They will face the Mariners and the Giants next.
The Blue Jays have a .247 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Ernie Clement is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in RBI with 53, adding a team‑high 19 home runs.
Braydon Fisher (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 3‑3 record, 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 36‑50 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 17‑26 road record and are coming off a 3‑0 road win against the Blue Jays. They will face the Braves and the Royals next.
The Mets have a .230 batting average this season, .298 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .298 batting average, also adding a team‑high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 46.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 5‑6 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: July 1, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Braydon Fisher Record this season: 3-3 ERA: 3.48
- Home Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Mets: –
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a road win.
- The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a home loss.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The Mets have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against American League opponents.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last nine games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 5-6 ERA: 4.53
- Road Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Blue Jays have lost 10 of their last 11 home games after playing the previous day.
- The road team has won seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games after playing the previous day.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last eight games.
- The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five day games.
- The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Mets’ last eight road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the last five games between the Mets and Blue Jays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- Yohendrick Pinango has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
- Braydon Fisher has recorded two strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
- Luis Urias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Ernie Clement ranks 7th in the league in Hits (94) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Alvarez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Mets as favorites against the Blue Jays.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded five or more strikeouts in 17 of his last 18 appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
- Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.563) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
- The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for walks this season (237).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (104).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).
Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction
The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Blue Jays and have won two of their last three visits in Toronto.
In this Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Mets are coming as -115 road favorites. I like the Mets in this one and this is purely a fade to a struggling Blue Jays team that has won only once in its last eight games. Peralta is coming off a shutout start and the Jays are going for a bullpen game, while their offense has been struggling, with just 4 runs scored in their last three games. The Mets have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball so I expect them to win this one on the road.